Washington Times (DC)
March
9, 2018
Premiums under Obamacare will increase from 12 percent to
32 percent next year unless the federal government steps in, according to a
study that examines the fallout from President Trump's attempts to chip away at
the program.
The nationwide analysis, released Thursday by California's
insurance exchange, said repeal of the Affordable Care Act's "individual
mandate" to hold insurance is the main driver, jacking up rates by 7
percent to 15 percent in 2019 and up to 10 percent in the following two years,
as younger and/or healthier people decide not to get coverage.
Mr. Trump's decision to slash the enrollment period and
the promotion of Obamacare's exchanges will contribute to price increases, as
people fail to sign up, while his twin moves to offer plans that don't comport
with the 2010s coverage requirements will have a relatively modest impact,
boosting rates by the low single digits.
Consumer behavior itself, such as the mix of enrollees and
their use of health services, is likely to increase premiums by 7 percent in
each of the next three years.
Milliman, which conducted the analysis, said the
cumulative effect is that premiums could rise by more than 90 percent through
2021.
Expected rate increases will vary wildly across the
nation, analysts warned, but said states that promote their markets or take
steps to regulate prices down would fare better than others.
Taxpayer-funded subsidies will blunt rising costs for most
people on Obamacare's exchanges, but several million Americans will take it on
the chin.
"The challenges to our health care system are
threatening to have real consequences for millions of Americans," said
Peter V. Lee, executive director of Covered California. "The prospect of
30 percent premium increases in 2019 and hikes of over 90 percent over the next
three years threatens access to coverage for millions of Americans."
Obamacare's defenders say Republican tweaks from
Washington are destabilizing the exchange markets after a relatively steady
year of enrollment on the exchanges.
Signups appear to dip slightly this year, from 12.2 million
in 2017 to an estimated 11.8 million, despite Mr. Trump's antipathy and his
claims that his predecessor's signature law was already "dead."
The administration and congressional Republicans say
Obamacare's economics were wobbly even before Mr. Trump came along, after
lackluster enrollment resulted in double-digit price increases and the exodus
of major insurers from the program.
The White House says middle-class Americans are desperate
for cheaper options. It's pushing a parallel set of regulations that would open
the door to plan options that aren't governed by Obamacare's coverage standards
or its prohibition on charging a sicker person more than a healthy one.
Mr. Trump wants to allow people in similar trades to band
together and buy "association plans" across states lines, and let
people hold short-term insurance plans for a full year, instead of just three
months.
Sen. John Barrasso, Wyoming Republican, introduced a bill
that would let people renew those short-term plans.
Democrats fear that will result in a splintered market in
which only the sickest customers stay in Obamacare, driving up consumer and
taxpayer costs.
Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said
Thursday the administration supports letting customers renew the short-term
plans.
"We think they're low-cost options," he said.
"If it's right for that person in their situation, we would like for them
to have renewability."
https://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/aca-premiums-rise-12-32-next-year-unless-feds-step
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