Caitlin Owens Aug 6, 2018
Many
Republicans assume their party will take another stab at repealing and
replacing the Affordable Care Act if the midterm elections go their way, even
though GOP candidates aren't making a big deal about it on the campaign trail.
What they're
saying: "Repeal is like fight club," one GOP operative told
me. "First rule is not to talk about it."
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There's a
decent chance Republicans won't be in a position to try again, in part
because their last effort was so unpopular. Health care is front and center in
Democrats' bid for the House majority, and recent polling shows
that Democrats have an edge on the issue.
- That's also part of the reason Republican
candidates aren't campaigning on ACA repeal as aggressively as they have
in the past.
But if
Republicans hang onto the House and expand their majority
in the Senate, lawmakers and aides generally assume another repeal vote would
happen.
- "I suppose that it’s all in the
numbers, and if you had a significant enough shift in the Senate
and you came up with a replacement that really did generate a level
of support, yep," said Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who opposed last year's
repeal bill.
- That bill failed by just one vote in the
Senate, and GOP candidates are emphasizing the ACA as they try to expand
their one-seat majority.
- Republicans challenging Democratic
incumbents in places like Wisconsin and Montana have recently reiterated their
opposition to the law. Two of those candidates — Patrick Morrisey in West
Virginia and Josh Hawley in Missouri — are state attorneys general who
have signed on to a new lawsuit arguing the ACA is unconstitutional.
There are two
big obstacles: Losing too many House seats to pass a repeal bill there, and
finding a replacement plan that could get more votes than the last effort.
- For now, the block grant proposal that
Sens. Bill Cassidy and Lindsey Graham put forward last year remains the
leading policy option.
- "Don’t make it a cutting Medicaid
exercise — make it a 'screw the blue states' exercise and block grant to
states with normal Medicaid growth, and you win," a senior GOP aide
said.
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