Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Chart Review: Projecting Federal Health Spending


Margaret Barnhorst, Health Care Policy Intern
The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) latest Budget and Economic Outlook projects that federal spending on major health care programs will more than double over the next 10 years. In 2019, federal spending on major health care programs was $1.3 trillion, and this sum will rise to $2.5 trillion by 2030. Outlays for major health care programs were 5.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019, and this rate will rise to 7.0 percent of GDP in 2030, driven mainly by Medicare. Both rising health care costs and an aging population are driving the growth in mandatory spending on federal health programs. CBO projects these spending trends will continue in the future under current law, with federal spending on health care programs reaching 9 percent of GDP by 2050.
Projected Federal Spending on Health Programs 2019-2030


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