Leah Rosenbaum Forbes Staff
Jan 23, 2020 NOTE: This post is updated to
reflect the latest news (2/3/20, 8:00pm EST)
On January 30th, The World Health Organization
decided to declare the current Wuhan coronavirus outbreak a global health
emergency. WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a press conference that
the decision to declare the outbreak an emergency wasn’t because of the rapidly
growing number of cases in China, but because the expert panel was worried
about the virus spreading to countries. “Our greatest concern is the potential
for the virus to spread to countries with weaker health systems,” he said.
Although the United States is telling
citizens not to travel to
China, the virus continues to travel across the globe. Here’s everything you
need to know about the virus, how it could impact travel and commerce, and
what’s going to happen next.
The Outbreak Basics
On February 3rd authorities confirmed that
almost 20,000 people are infected, far surpassing the total number of people
infected in the 2002-2003 SARS epidemic. At least 426 people have died from the
new disease since it was first identified on Dec. 31; the vast majority of the
deaths have been in China, but one death has also been reported in the
Philippines. The outbreak started in the city of Wuhan and has so far spread to
25 other countries: Australia, Sweden, Spain, Germany, Finland, Macau,
Cambodia, Canada, Italy, Russia, France, Malaysia, Nepal, Singapore, Sri Lanka,
South Korea, Japan, United Arab Emirates, Taiwan, Thailand, India, Philippines,
Vietnam, U.K. and the U.S.
What Is A Coronavirus?
Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that
cause infections in the respiratory system. There are seven known
coronaviruses, including the newly identified 2019-nCoV. SARS (Severe
Acute Respiratory Syndrome) was the coronavirus behind a deadly outbreak from
2002 to 2003, which infected 8,098 people and killed 774. MERS (also
called Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), first identified in 2012, is another
recent and ongoing coronavirus outbreak, with cases reported as recently
as this week.
Of the 2,494 cases and
858 deaths associated with MERS, most occurred in the Arabian Peninsula.
The Wuhan coronavirus is different from these diseases, however, and it has
never been seen in people before.
How Deadly Is This Disease?
The short answer is, we don’t know. Current
estimates put the fatality risk at about 2%. This is low compared to other
coronaviruses like SARS and MERS, which have case fatality rates of about 11%
and 35% respectively. But this number is almost certain to change, since we
don’t really know yet how many people are infected and how many deaths will
occur in the coming weeks. One thing we do know: like many other illnesses,
2019-nCoV patients are more likely to die if they are old or suffer from other
diseases.
How Did
The Outbreak Start?
The
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says that initial cases of 2019-nCoV are
linked to the Hua Nan Seafood Market in Wuhan. The outbreak likely started from
a “spillover” incident when the virus was passed from animal to human. These
spillovers happen through close human-to-animal contact, especially in markets
where live and dead animals are sold for food. Ebola likely spilled over to
humans from bats and nonhuman primates, MERS spilled over to humans from
camels, and SARS spilled over from palm civets, small mammals considered a
delicacy in China. The Wuhan market was shut down on Jan.1 to limit the spread
of 2019-nCoV, but more cases have since been identified, meaning the virus can
also be spread from person-to-person.
So Why
Have I Been Hearing About Snakes?
In an
academic article published on Wednesday, Chinese researchers reported genetic
similarities between 2019-nCoV and a coronavirus found in snakes. Notably, this
article is a preprint and hasn’t yet been
peer-reviewed or vetted in any way. What’s more, other scientists are skeptical on whether
a virus can jump between cold-blooded and warm-blooded hosts. So the snake
theory is just that: a theory.
Is It
Possible That The Coronavirus Was Genetically Engineered?
There
are a lot of conspiracy theories on social media right now, many of which are
spreading faster than the actual virus. A recent preprint paper (again, that
means it hasn’t been reviewed) recently claimed that a few molecular parts of
the 2019-nCoV virus has similarities to HIV, and thus it could mean it is
genetically engineered. There is no scientific proof of this claim. Other
scientists have not been able to replicate the findings, and say that these
similarities could be a result of natural virus evolution. Papers published in reputable peer-reviewed
journal Nature have found that the genetic makeup of this new
virus is very similar to SARS, and may have also come from bats.
How
Does The Disease Spread? Should I Start Wearing A Mask?
Scientists
are still trying to figure this out. It’s not clear how the virus is
transmitted, or how easily it can move from person-to-person. We do know that
it moves from person (not just animal to person) because at least 15 health workers in Wuhan caring for sick
patients have also become sick, and some of the infected never visited the
seafood market. There have also been two documeted cases of person-to-person
transmission in the United States. Coronaviruses typically spread through the
air when a person sneezes or coughs. If this disease works the same way, face
masks might offer some protection to those at risk. The
type of mask matters, though. Face masks with respiratory valves are more effective than regular paper
surgical masks, and cloth masks may do more harm than good. Since the droplets
from coughs and sneezes tend to end up on surfaces other people touch, frequent
hand washing is also a good idea.
One
important piece of information: China’s National Health Commission (NHC)
recently said that unlike SARS, the new coronavirus is also contagious before
patients show symptoms. This means that it could spread more easily, since
people could be transmitting the disease before they even know they are sick.
People may be carrying the virus without symptoms for up to two weeks—this is
called the “incubation period.”
I Live
In North America, Should I Be Worried?
On
January 31st, the Department of Health and Human Services declared a U.S.
Public Health Emergency due to the new coronavirus. However, said HHS Secretary Alex Azar, “While this
virus poses a serious public health threat, the risk to the American public
remains low at this time.” U.S. citizens have been advised not to travel to
China, and several popular airlines, including American Airlines, Delta
Air Lines and United Airlines, have announced that they will be suspending air service between the U.S.
and China.
There
have been 11 confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV in the U.S.: one case each in
Massachusetts, Washington and Arizona, six cases in California and two cases in
Illinois, including the first documented case of human-to-human transmission in
the country. The CDC says that they have tested a total of
260 cases of the new virus, and 82 tests are still pending.
I Was
Recently In China - Are There Symptoms I Should Look Out For?
Doctors
should look out for patients who recently traveled to or near Wuhan or
other outbreak sites in China and have a fever, cough and difficulty
breathing, symptoms that are similar to SARS and
MERS. If you notice that these are also similar to the regular symptoms of
pneumonia, you’re right. Cases of 2019-CoV are only confirmed at CDC
labs.
How
Will Lunar New Year Impact The Outbreak?
Saturday,
January 25, was the Lunar New Year celebrations across China. Even though
several cities in China are in lockdown, millions of travelers still left the
country and experts are worried this might accelerate the outbreak.
How Is
This Outbreak Impacting The Global Economy
On the
first day of trading since Lunar New Year, Chinese markets closed nearly
8% down on Monday, February 3rd. Reports
have come out saying that China might revise its GDP estimates due to concern
over the virus. Major retailers including Apple and Tesla have halted operations at stores
and plants in China.
On
January 27th, the US stock market had its biggest drop since October, which many
analysts are attributing to growing concerns about the Chinese economy. Oil
prices have been hit particularly hard due to decreased travel to and from
China.
Locally,
Wuhan is losing revenue as qualifying matches for the 2020 Olympics have been
moved out of the city. The Chinese film industry is also taking a hit, as seven
films set to premier over the Lunar New Year Weekend were pulled from the box office to prevent
large crowds.
What
Steps Are Governments And Healthcare Companies Taking Next To Contain The
Outbreak?
Right
now, there is no specific treatment for 2019-nCoV, and no vaccine.
In
Wuhan, construction workers are busily building new hospitals solely for the
purpose of treating and containing coronavirus patients. They expect the first
to be open by February 3rd.
All
travel to and from Wuhan has been shut down, including flights and passenger
train services.Two other Chinese cities, Huanggang and Ezhou, are also on
lockdown. In the U.S., all passengers arriving from Wuhan will be routed
through international airports in five cities (Los Angeles, San Francisco, New
York, Chicago and Atlanta) and screened for disease.
Gilead
Sciences announced that they are partnering with Chinese authorities to conduct
a small human clinical trial and see if the antiviral
drug remdesivir is useful for treating coronavirus patients. Remdesivir was
initially developed to treat hemorrhagic diseases, including Ebola and Marburg
viruses.
Moderna, a manufacturer of mRNA vaccines,
announced on Thursday that it received a grant of an undisclosed amount from
the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) to begin developing
a vaccine for the new virus. Johnson & Johnson has also said that they
plan to use the same technology used to develop their Ebola vaccine to create a
vaccine for 2019-nCoV.
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