Wednesday, August 5, 2020

When the Music Stops


When I think of businesses that have been crushed by the pandemic, cruise lines are the first thing that come to mind. But concerts and live events aren't far behind. And that's created tough times for Live Nation, the owner of TicketMaster and the self-titled "largest live entertainment company in the world."
Live Nation reported tonight, and sure enough it's one of the rare results that didn't beat estimates. The company's second-quarter revenue was down 98%, to $74 million, from $3.2 billion a year ago. But the company put the best spin possible on the results, and Live Nation shares were down a modest 1.2% in after-hours trading. Here's CEO Michael Rapino on a conference call with investors tonight:
Our expectation is that live events will return at scale in the summer of 2021, with ticket sales ramping up in the quarters leading up to these shows. And partly, we remain confident that fans will return to live events when it is safe to do so. Our strongest indicator of demand is that fans are holding onto their tickets even when given the option of a refund.
Through the end of the second quarter, 86% of concert fans are keeping their tickets for rescheduled shows, demonstrating their continued desire to attend concerts in the future despite the current uncertainty.
And President Joe Berchtold:
We've been pleasantly surprised thus far on the progress of vaccines. Probably some of the testing and tracing has been slower, but still now is ramping up. ... So amongst those, I think we believe sitting here today that the facts would say that by the beginning of the year, you're able to put on the tickets on sale with comfort, you're going to be able to do the shows next summer. And then for the reasons that we've talked about, we have a high degree of comfort that the demand is going to be there. ... So all those factors together, I think, is what gives us the comfort. 
Shares of Live Nation are down 33% so far this year. If things go right, the company is set up to be the ultimate re-opening act. 

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