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Delta Variant Slowing US Economic Expansion
An analysis by Erik Lundh, Principal Economist, The Conference
Board |
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Click on the chart to enlarge |
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The Conference Board forecasts that US Real GDP growth will slow
to 5.5 percent (annualized rate) in Q3 2021, vs. 6.6 percent growth in Q2
2021, and that 2021 annual growth will come in at 5.9 percent
(year-over-year). This forecast is a downgrade from our August outlook and
incorporates the larger-than-expected impact that the COVID-19 Delta variant
has had on the US economy. In the short term, US consumption should continue
to grow, though at a more muted rate due to Delta, and a meaningful expansion
in private inventories will be delayed due to ongoing supply chain
disruptions associated with the virus. Looking further ahead, we forecast
that the US economy will grow by 3.8 percent (year-over-year) in 2022 and 3.0
percent (year-over-year) in 2023. |
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