Maybe September Won't Be so Bad?

By Jeffrey Cane | Wednesday, September 15

A September to Remember?   September is the cruelest month for investors. As we noted a couple of weeks back, the average return for the S&P 500 during the month has been a loss of 0.99% going back to 1928.  So far, history appears to be on track to repeating itself.

The S&P 500 is down 0.93% through the first 10 trading days of September, according to our colleagues at Dow Jones Market Data. That's the worst 10-day start to a month since -- wait for it -- last September, when the index fell 2.8%. The S&P 500 ended September 2020 with a 3.9% decline.

The Dow Jones  Industrial Average, meanwhile, is down 1.55% so far in September.  It is the worst start to a month for the Dow since May 2020 ("sell in May and go away"?), when it fell 2.96%.  

But today? Hey, maybe things are not so bad.  The S&P 500 ended up 0.8%, its strongest daily gain since Aug. 27. The advance was broad, with all but the utilities sector ending the day in the green. And it followed six declines for the index in the previous seven sessions.  The Dow closed up 237 points, or 0.7%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8%, and the Russell 2000 climbed 1.15.

Still, reasons for investors to be less pessimistic about the pace of the economic recovery were not in abundance today.  The Federal Reserve's report showing a 0.4% rise in industrial production in August did help.  The increase was nearly in line with expectations and showed continued growth even when hampered by the effects of Hurricane Ida.

The place to be optimistic was in the energy market. Oil prices accelerated a recent rally after a U.S. government report showed a reduction in inventories for the week ended Sept. 10 that was sharper than expected.  Crude oil futures rose $2.15, or 3.05%, to $72.61 a barrel. Oil is now up 6.6% over the last four sessions.

The biggest winners in the S&P 500 today were all energy stocks: EOG Resources, up 8.33%; Diamondback Energy, up 7.80%; Marathon Oil up 7.67%; Devon Energy  up 7.29%; and Cabot Oil & Gas, up 7.07%.

In other markets, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell for a second consecutive session, settling at 1.276%.  Gold fell 0.68%, to $1792.40 an ounce, while the U.S. dollar was slightly weaker against other major currencies. Bitcoin has now risen four of the past five days and was trading at  $51,930 this afternoon.

DJIA:  +0.68% to 34,814.39
S&P 500: +0.85% to 4,480.70
Nasdaq: +0.82% to 15,161.53

The Hot Stock: EOG Resources +8.3%
The Biggest Loser: Wynn Resorts -6.3%

Best Sector: Energy +3.74%
Worst Sector: Utilities -0.13%