Tuesday, December 7, 2021

The Dow's Big Day

 

By Nicholas Jasinski |  Monday, December 6

Tape Bombs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its best day in over a year today, as value and defensive stocks led a rebound from last week’s market declines. The index surged 647 points, or 1.9%, for its best one-day point gain since November 2020 and largest percentage increase since last March. The S&P 500 closed up 1.2% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 gained 2.1%, for its fourth-straight daily move of 2% or more.

The news today was relatively positive for recent weeks, with early signs that the Omicron variant of Covid-19 might be less severe than earlier strains and reports that China is considering easing monetary policy.

That was the today's main driver: Post-pandemic reopening stocks were among the biggest gainers. Airlines American Airlines Group added 7.9% and United Airlines Holdings jumped 8.3%. Cruise lines Carnival and Royal Caribbean Cruises surged 8.0% and 8.3%, respectively. Marriott International added 4.5%, Live Nation Entertainment rose 6.1%, and Cinemark Holdings gained 7.7%

But today's rally was broad, as all 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in the green. The Omicron variant continues to capture investors' attention. Bad news on that front brought about the Dow's worst day of the year less than two weeks ago.

The broad market will remain sensitive to daily headlines about Omicron—both good and bad. The so-called "tape bombs" will continue to drive trading across markets until there's more certainty about the variant and its ultimate economic impact.

“It still feels like we’re in the guesswork stage of working out what the impact of Omicron will be,” said Russ Mould, an analyst at broker AJ Bell. “It would be naive to rule out further volatility as markets attempt to work out exactly what’s going on.”

On the Federal Reserve policy front today, the latest reporting suggested that the central bank could announce plans at its next meeting to more quickly pull back from its bond-buying program. That should result in higher bond yields and interest rates sooner, which is less-than-positive news for stock prices.

“We’re really at a fascinating crossroads in markets at the moment,” said Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank. “The market sentiment on the virus and the policy makers at the Fed are moving in opposite directions.”

Put together, better virus news and higher interest rate expectations favor economically-sensitive cyclical stocks over growth-oriented technology stocks.

That showed up in today's trading, with the more cyclical Dow handily outperforming the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

 

 


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