Tuesday, May 17, 2022

Five Weeks of Losses

 

By Alex Eule |  Friday, May 6

Still Falling. Even after a wild and painful week, stocks came into Friday basically flat on the week. A decent day of trading could have left stocks in positive territory for the week, snapping a month of losses.

But investors aren’t ready for such happy thoughts. Despite a jobs report that had elements of good news, stocks spent the day staggering from flat to down big, before finishing somewhere in between. The S&P 500 was down 0.6% on the day, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.4%. 

The day's trading left the large-cap S&P 500 down 0.2% on the week, for a  fifth consecutive week of losses. The last time that happened was June 2011. While the March 2020 pandemic selloff was uglier, it was also quicker, with the S&P 500 falling for just four weeks before beginning its rebound. 

Today, investors waffled over a jobs report that was full of mixed messages. The economy created more new jobs in April (+428,000) than expected (+396,000), but hourly wage growth (0.3%) was slightly below expectations (0.4%).

My colleague Brian Hershberg notes a milestone could now be within reach: "If hiring continues at the pace seen over the past three months of around 523,000, the pandemic’s hit should be erased in the next few months."

The worrying sign was that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.6% thanks to fewer people entering the workforce.

For investors, the key takeaway is that the report probably won't do much to change the Fed's current path. Brian wrote that the report contained "the latest signs of a tight labor market that will likely keep the Federal Reserve in line to aggressively tighten monetary policy."

The next big number for the Fed -- and investors -- comes next Wednesday, with the release of the consumer price index. Economists are forecasting year-over-year price gains of 8.1%, slightly below last month's 8.5% reading. The actual inflation reading will go a long way toward determining whether next week marks six straight weeks of losses, or, perhaps, the start of a winning streak. 

Watch our weekly TV show on Fox Business Saturday or Sunday at 10 a.m. or 11:30 a.m. ET. This week, insights on what's next for stocks from Cambria Investment Management's Meb Faber. Plus, Andrew Bary on Warren Buffett's stock market buying spree. 

 

 


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