Monday, July 11, 2022

The Earnings Problem

 

By Alex Eule |  Monday, July 11

The Calm Before the Storm. Things are about to get busy. Earnings season kicks off this week, with PepsiCo reporting tomorrow, Delta Air Lines reporting on Wednesday, and then most of the big banks reporting on Thursday and Friday. In the middle of that, investors will be treated to new inflation data that could spark additional fears about rising prices. When it's released on Wednesday, economists expect the June consumer price index to show an 8.8% year-over-year gain, accelerating from May's 8.6% annualized rate. On Friday, we'll get a new read into the state of the consumer, with June retail sales data.

But for now, on a more quiet Monday, investors were focused on new Covid cases, including the first confirmed case of the BA.5 Omicron sub-variant in Shanghai. The development raises fears of new lockdowns in Chinese cities given the country's zero-Covid policy. Separately, officials announced a weeklong lockdown in Macau, China's gambling center and home to casinos owned by Wynn Resorts and Las Vegas Sands. Those stocks both fell about 6% on Monday.

Covid-sensitive cruise lines had a rough day, as well, with Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Lines each down at least 5%. 

Twitter, the S&P 500's worst performing stock on the day, finished down 11.3%, with investors reacting to Friday's news that Elon Musk was seeking to walk away from his $44 billion deal to buy the social media company. Twitter shares closed the day at $32.65, a 40% discount to Musk's $54.20 offer price agreed to in April.  

Barron's Eric Savitz writes that Twitter shares could have more downside in store if the deal actually falls apart. "Most Street analysts seem to think that Twitter as an independent company with no acquisition potential based on the current outlook would trade in the $25 to $30 a share range," Eric writes.

Today, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, fell 2.3%, snapping a five-day winning streak, while the S&P 500 was off 1.2%. Earnings season has never felt more needed. More on that below. 

 

 

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