An
interesting discussion happened in a recent economic outlook event held in
Houston by Fifth Third Bank—its chief investment strategist, Jeffrey Korzenik,
says he thinks the U.S. might avoid a recession, the Houston Business
Journal reports.
But he also
had a warning—we’re headed for a labor shortage that goes beyond the Great
Resignation. In fact, he called the shortage (currently the U.S. has just shy
of 11 million jobs and only 6 million job seekers) somewhat unprecedented.
Using the
game of musical chairs as a metaphor, Korzenik said that 2.3 million Baby
Boomers have retired early—they’re not in the game at all. But more troublesome
is the fact that birth rates have fallen well below the replacement rate (what
is needed to replace the population as it dies off) of 2.1, which means that
the number of people playing the game is also limited.
“We’re not
only below replacement level, we’re so far below that level that immigration,
at least legal immigration under current policy, can’t make up the difference,”
Korzenik said. “If you are an employer, (these numbers) should terrify you.”
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