Keith Speights, The
Motley Fool •July 11, 2019
Is
health insurance a hot area for investors? Actually, yes.
With
more baby boomers turning 65, Medicare rolls are swelling. Medicare Advantage plans have become increasingly
popular. These plans are offered by private health insurers. And they provide
all of the benefits covered by the original Medicare program and then some.
Enrollment is also soaring for Medicare Supplement plans (also known as Medigap plans), which helps pay some of the out-of-pocket
costs that Medicare doesn't cover.
Many
states have implemented Medicaid managed care programs. With these programs, states
contract with health insurers or managed care companies to provide Medicaid
health benefits at a fixed cost per person.
And
with unemployment rates still at historically low levels, more individuals are
working, which means they're more likely to have health insurance through their
employers.
Increased
enrollment in Medicare Advantage, Medicare Supplement, Medicaid managed care,
and employer-sponsored health plans is music to the ears of major health
insurers. They especially benefit from growth in these areas because the more
members they add, the greater their economies of scale.
What are the biggest health insurance stocks?
The top 10 biggest health
insurance stocks poised to profit from these trends are:
|
Company
|
Market Cap
|
|
1. UnitedHealth
Group (NYSE: UNH)
|
$235
billion
|
|
2. Anthem (NYSE:
ANTM)
|
$73
billion
|
|
3. CVS
Health (NYSE: CVS)
|
$72
billion
|
|
4. Cigna (NYSE:
CI)
|
$61
billion
|
|
5. Humana (NYSE:
HUM)
|
$36
billion
|
|
6. Centene (NYSE:
CNC)
|
$21
billion
|
|
7. Wellcare
Health Plans (NYSE: WCG)
|
$14
billion
|
|
8. Molina
Healthcare (NYSE: MOH)
|
$9
billion
|
|
9. Magellan
Health (NASDAQ: MGLN)
|
$1.7
billion
|
|
10. Health
Insurance Innovations (NASDAQ: HIIQ)
|
$348
million
|
Data source: Yahoo! Finance. Market caps as of July 9, 2019.
Here's
what you need to know about each of these big health insurers.
1. UnitedHealth Group
UnitedHealth
Group is the world's biggest health insurance company by far. Its
UnitedHealthcare business covers around 50 million individuals.
The
company's health insurance segment generates more than 80% of UnitedHealth
Group's total revenue. This segment is divided into four businesses:
- Employer and individual
- Medicare
and retirement
- Community
and state
- Global
Increased
demand for UnitedHealthcare's Medicare Advantage plans has helped the Medicare
and retirement business become the fastest-growing component of UnitedHealth
Group's health insurance operations. The company's other health insurance
businesses also are delivering solid growth.
But
UnitedHealth Group is enjoying even more revenue growth from its Optum
segments, which include OptumHealth, OptumInsight, and OptumRx. OptumHealth
provides health management and health financial services. OptumInsight provides
healthcare technology services. OptumRx is a leading pharmacy benefits manager (PBM). These businesses are
typically more profitable than the company's health insurance segment.
2. Anthem
Anthem
ranks as the largest Blue Cross and Blue Shield plan provider, covering members
in 14 states. The company's subsidiaries extend Anthem's coverage to all 50
U.S. states. In total, Anthem provides health insurance to more than 40 million
individuals.
The
company has three segments. Its commercial and specialty business segment
focuses on managed care products and services, as well as dental and vision
insurance products. Anthem's government business segment includes its Medicare,
Medicaid, and Federal Employee Program (FEP) plans. The company's
"other" segment includes eliminations and corporate expenses not
allocated to either of its other two reportable segments.
Anthem's
government business segment contributes around 60% of the company's total
revenue. Membership growth in the company's Medicare plans has been a key
growth driver for the segment. However, Anthem's commercial and specialty
business tends to be more profitable than its government business.
The
company is also launching a new PBM, IngenioRx. Anthem used Express Scripts as
its PBM in recent years but decided to leave Express Scripts and start its own
PBM after a highly publicized dispute between the two companies.
3. CVS Health
Most
people know CVS Health as one of the largest pharmacies. Its CVS Caremark
business is also one of the biggest PBMs in the country. And thanks to
the 2018 acquisition of Aetna, CVS Health is now one of the
biggest health insurers.
This
acquisition created controversy as analysts and investors questioned the wisdom
of the pharmacy giant expanding into health insurance. However, CVS Health felt
the synergies and opportunities to "create a new front door to
healthcare" made the Aetna acquisition a smart long-term growth strategy.
CVS
Health is still in the process of fully integrating Aetna into its overall
business. But Aetna already makes a big financial impact for the company, contributing
nearly 30% of total revenue. Strong demand for its Medicare products continues
to drive Aetna's revenue growth.
Of
course, CVS Health's legacy businesses remain very important to the company.
The company's pharmacy services segment, which includes its CVS Caremark PBM
and Silverscript Medicare Part D prescription drug plan business,
generates more than half of total revenue. CVS Health's retail and long-term
care (LTC) pharmacy business continue to be the company's second-biggest source
of revenue.
4. Cigna
A major
acquisition made a greater impact on Cigna than CVS Health's buyout of Aetna.
In 2018, Cigna acquired Express Scripts, one of the biggest PBMs in the
world. Prior to the acquisition of Express Scripts, most of Cigna's revenue
came from its commercial and government health insurance plans. That's no
longer the case.
Cigna
now is organized into five business segments. The biggest in terms of revenue
generation is the health services division, which consists primarily of the
Express Scripts PBM business. This segment contributes around 70% of Cigna's
total revenue.
The
company's integrated medical segment includes the core operations of what could
be called the "old Cigna" that existed prior to the Express Scripts
acquisition. This segment continues to enjoy solid growth as premiums increase
for its Medicare Advantage and Medicare Part D plans and as the company
attracts more commercial customers.
Cigna
also now has three smaller segments: international markets, group disability
and other, and corporate. The international markets segment includes Cigna's
supplemental health, life, and accident business. The group disability and
other division primarily markets disability and life insurance products. The
corporate segment includes any revenue or expenses not allocated to the other
business segments.
5. Humana
Humana
has been at the center of more deal rumors than any of the big health insurers
on the list. The company was thought to be a potential buyout target for Walgreens
Boots Alliance or Walmart. Humana and Aetna tried to merge
in 2017 but the deal was blocked by a federal court. In June 2019, Humana squelched
rumors that the company might acquire Centene.
There's
one significant deal that Humana did finalize, though. In the third quarter of
2018, the company acquired a 40% stake in Kindred At Home, which includes the
former home health business of Kindred Healthcare and the hospice business of
Curo Health Services. And while rumors that Walgreens might buy Humana haven't
panned out, the two companies are working closely together on one front: Humana
is operating senior-focused primary care clinics within Walgreens stores in
Kansas City.
Humana
operates three business segments: retail, group and specialty, and healthcare
services. The retail segment primarily focuses on marketing Medicare plans.
Humana's group and specialty segment targets the employer group market with
health insurance plus dental, vision, and other insurance products. The
company's healthcare services segment includes its PBM and Kindred at Home home
health and hospice interest.
The
company makes more than three-quarters of its total revenue from Medicare
Advantage plans, including individual and group plans. Humana's second-largest
source of revenue is its employer group business, which contributes nearly 10%
of total revenue.
6. Centene
Centene
ultimately didn't become an acquisition target for Humana. However, Centene
plans to make a major acquisition of its own by buying Wellcare Health Plans.
The combination of the two companies would make Centene the fourth-largest
health insurer in the country.
Shareholders
of both Centene and Wellcare have approved the acquisition. Federal and state
regulators must also OK the deal. The companies expect that the transaction
will be finalized in the first half of 2020.
In the
meantime, Centene continues to focus largely on the Medicaid managed care
market. The company makes more than two-thirds of its total revenue from Medicaid.
This is significantly higher than in the past primarily because of Centene's
2018 acquisition of Fidelis Care.
Centene
also has a significant presence in the commercial and Medicare plan markets.
The company competes in several state Health Insurance Marketplaces established
after the implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Centene's Medicare
business markets Medicare Advantage and Medicare Supplement plans, as well as
special plans approved by Medicare.
7. Wellcare Health Plans
It
makes sense that Wellcare Health Plans would attract interest from Centene. The
two companies' businesses are similar.
Like
Centene, Wellcare makes most of its money -- nearly two-thirds of total revenue
-- from its Medicaid operations. Wellcare's Medicaid business focuses on five
states: Florida, Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, and Georgia. The company has
expanded its presence in Florida especially, winning a five-year contract to
provide statewide managed care services to children with medically complex
conditions. It went into effect in February 2019.
Also
like Centene, Wellcare has significant Medicare operations. The company sells
Medicare Advantage and Medicare Part D prescription drug plans. Wellcare's
Medicare health plans business contributes more than 30% of its total revenue.
Wellcare's
2018 acquisition of Meridian enabled the company to enter the PBM business. In
addition, the deal gave Wellcare a small footprint in Michigan's Health
Insurance Marketplace.
8. Molina Healthcare
Molina
Healthcare's business model is also similar to those of Centene and Wellcare.
Molina focuses on the "three Ms": Medicaid, Medicare, and
marketplaces (Health Insurance Marketplaces, that is).
The
company's Medicaid business generates over three-quarters of Molina's total
revenue. The biggest components of this business are the Temporary Assistance
for Needy Families (TANF), Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), and
Aged, Blind, or Disabled (ABD) programs.
Molina
makes around 14% of its total revenue from its Medicare business. A large
portion of this Medicare revenue comes from premiums received from Medicare
Advantage Medicare-Medicaid plans (MMPs), which provide integrated benefits for
individuals who are eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid.
Around
10% of Molina's total revenue comes from marketing plans on Health Insurance
Marketplaces. The company is especially strong in the Texas market, but also
generates significant revenue in California, Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and
Washington.
9. Magellan Health
Magellan
Health could soon be gobbled up by another health insurer. Anthem and
UnitedHealth Group are two top companies reported to be potentially interested
in acquiring Magellan.
Magellan
Complete Care provides integrated solutions for physical health, behavioral
health, pharmacy benefits, diagnostics, specialty services, and long-term
support services. This business generates around 35% of its total revenue.
The
company makes around one-third of its total revenue from its pharmacy
management segment. This segment primarily consists of Magellan's PBM
operations.
Magellan's
behavioral and specialty health business provides behavioral health and
employee assistance program services, as well as musculoskeletal, cardiac,
advanced imaging, and physical medicine management services to health plans,
employers, and government health programs. This business contributes nearly 30%
of Magellan's total revenue.
10. Health Insurance Innovations
Health
Insurance Innovations is the oddball in the list of the top 10 biggest health
insurance stocks. The company isn't a traditional health insurer. Instead,
Health Insurance Innovations operates a cloud-based technology platform for
individuals to purchase health insurance, life insurance, and supplemental
plans. It also is a third-party administrator (TPA), which processes health
insurance claims and handles other administrative functions for employers.
The
company makes most of its money from commissions earned when customers buy
insurance plans through its platform. Nearly 40% of Health Insurance
Innovations' total revenue comes from commissions on short-term medical (STM)
plans. The STM market should continue to be a strong growth driver for the
company in the future, especially with a new rule implemented in October 2018
that allows for longer-duration STM products.
STM
plans provide individuals with coverage for only a limited period of time,
usually for up to six months although some plans provide coverage for up to 12
months. They're typically purchased by individuals who are between jobs,
waiting for other health insurance to start, or who have recently turned 26 and
can't be covered by their parents' insurance any longer. However, STM plans
aren't legally required to cover all of the benefits that other health
insurance plans do.
There's
a risk for Health Insurance Innovations with its dependence on selling STM
plans, though. Some politicians oppose marketing the plans because they don't
provide enough benefits. While the Trump administration has promoted STM plans,
a future presidential administration could make changes that negatively impact
Health Insurance Innovations.
More
than one-third of Health Insurance Innovations' total revenue stems from
commissions related to health benefit insurance plans (HBIPs). Commissions on
supplemental insurance products contribute roughly one-quarter of the company's
total revenue.
Health
Insurance Innovations' acquisition in June 2019 of TogetherHealth gives it a
new opportunity to reach the senior market. TogetherHealth operates a platform
for individuals to connect with insurance companies with a special focus on the
over-65 insurance market.
Risks for these health insurance stocks
Each of
these 10 large health insurance stocks faces risks that are common to any kind
of stock. For example, a major economic slump or increased competition could
cause any of these stocks to underperform.
All of
these stocks (with the notable exception of Health Insurance Innovations) also
face what's called an underwriting risk. When health insurers don't accurately
estimate the risks linked with providing insurance coverage to specific
individuals or groups, they can charge premiums that aren't enough to cover the
medical costs incurred.
This
underwriting risk could cause health insurers to lose money. For example,
several major health insurers reported big losses over the last few years when
the premiums charged for individual health plans sold on state Health Insurance
Marketplaces weren't high enough to cover medical costs. Investors can usually
spot signs of trouble by reviewing health insurers' quarterly earnings updates.
When profits drop significantly for a line of business, it's often an
indication that the company's premiums aren't enough to cover medical expenses.
Another
key risk for these health insurance stocks is the possibility that the
U.S. could implement healthcare reforms that negatively impact the health
insurance industry. Support has grown for Medicare for All, a
program that would expand Medicare to all Americans. Some versions of this
program would eliminate or greatly reduce the need for private health insurance
in the U.S. This would dramatically impact even health insurers with global
operations because the U.S. is by far the largest health insurance market in
the world.
The
health insurance industry should continue to be a hot area for investors thanks
in large part to demographic trends. But if sweeping regulatory changes are introduced,
health insurance stocks could become more like a hot potato that no one wants
to hold.
Start investing in health insurance stocks
Despite
the risks, investing in health insurance stocks could very well be lucrative
over the long run. As baby boomers in the U.S. age, Medicare enrollment will
increase, with especially strong growth likely in Medicare Advantage plans.
Which
of these 10 biggest health insurance stocks is the best choice for investors
right now? CVS Health is probably the top pick. The company pays the
highest dividend yield (dividends paid as a percentage of share
price). CVS Health's pharmacy focus also should enable it to benefit more from
the overall increase in demand for healthcare than the others on the list.
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