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The shock of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns will
result in a 3.6 percent contraction in the US economy in 2020. Nevertheless,
The Conference Board expects growth to rebound by 3.6 percent in 2021 as
additional government stimulus and vaccines are deployed. In the medium term,
annual growth will likely average 1.0 percent for the period from 2020 to
2023. However, persistently high levels of unemployment may prevent further
upside.
In the long term, however, The Conference Board expects to see real GDP
growth accelerate through the end of the decade, yielding an average annual
growth rate of 1.8 percent between 2024 and 2030. Though this growth rate
falls short of the 2.2 percent rate seen prior to the pandemic (2011 to
2019), we anticipate a resurgence in total factor productivity (TFP), a
result of increasing efficiency and innovation. The pandemic forced US
households and businesses to adopt new technologies and modes of operating,
including online shopping and telework, at a much more rapid pace than would
have otherwise been the case. The end result, we believe, will be TFP growth
akin to what was seen in the United States in the 2000s—a period of rapid
digital transformation.
For a more detailed assessment of the forces shaping the future of the US
economy, download our new report: GEO 2021 US: The US Economy will Recover from COVID-19,
but It May be Forever Changed.
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