Friday, March 26, 2021

(Almost) Everything Goes Up

 

By Matthew Klein |  Friday, March 26

In Media Res.   Today was a great day for risk assets, with the S&P 500 index of large stocks surging 1.7% and the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks up 1.8%. Within the S&P, a staggering 452 components were up for the day—the third time this year that at least that many S&P 500 components have gone up in a single day. Stocks in Australia, Canada, Europe, the U.K., Japan, China, Hong Kong, and South Korea were all up, as were gold, silver, copper, oil. The dollar and bond prices, meanwhile, were both down, reflecting the diminished appeal of haven assets when investors are enthusiastic about growth.

There was one big exception to today’s rally, however: legacy media companies like Discovery, ViacomCBS, and Fox. Discovery and Viacom were both down more than 27% today, with each stock having dropped about 50% from the recent peaks. Fox was down by 6% today, and has lost 13% since the peak in mid-March. The recent shakeout pulled down the S&P’s communication services sector by 1.1% today. The other 10 sectors were up, with technology, energy, materials, and real estate all up by 2.5%.

Despite the carnage, the three companies’ share prices are still up year-to-date by far more than the broader S&P 500 index, with Discovery up 39%, ViacomCBS up 29%, and Fox up 25%. That compares with less than 6% for the S&P 500 as a whole.

All three companies had been hit hard by the pandemic and by consumers’ shift to streaming platforms at the expense of legacy cable media. Just before the announcement of the first successful vaccine trials in November, the three companies were down about 30 to 40% from the beginning of 2020.

Since then, however, the stock prices of Discovery and ViacomCBS more than tripled, while Fox shares rose just over 50%. Perhaps recognizing the unusual nature of the market moment, ViacomCBS sold a bunch of stock earlier in the week to finance its ambitions for the Paramount+ streaming service. (I subscribed last year to watch Star Trek: Picard and have since been enjoying the back catalog of Cheers.)

The main economic news of the day was the Personal Income and Outlays report for February from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. While disposable personal income was lower than in January, when the $600 checks were disbursed, household incomes after taxes and transfers in February were still much higher than in December.

Exclude the various pandemic relief programs, such as the Economic Impact Payments, the enhancements to unemployment insurance, the forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and the forbearance on student debt, and underlying disposable income in February was at its highest level ever. That’s thanks in large part to the continued strength of the recovery in employment income, which surpassed the pre-pandemic peak in January and continues to rise. Things should get even better once more people are vaccinated and normalcy resumes.

Watch our weekly TV show on Fox Business Fridays at 10 p.m. or 11:30 p.m. ET; Saturdays at 10 a.m. or 11:30 a.m.; or Sundays at 7 a.m., 10 a.m., or 11:30 a.m. This week, see an interview with Dan Springer, CEO of DocuSign. Plus, get insights on the battle between Hollywood studios and movie theaters.

 

 


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