Friday, April 23, 2021

The Year of the Metal Ox

 

By Matthew Klein |  Friday, February 12

Happy New Year! Markets were closed across much of Asia in celebration of the start of the lunar year of the Metal Ox, which began on Friday. The ox is a hardworking animal, so this is traditionally believed to be a year when effort and exertion will be rewarded.

According to The Chinese Zodiac, “the year of the Metal Ox brings career advancement, success in business, prosperity, and wellness for all zodiac signs.” Even better for investors, this should be a year when “no explosive or catastrophic events will occur.” And for those in Congress and the White House thinking about how to budget, this is supposed to be “a favorable year for economic recovery [and] a year of long-term investments.”

While many Asian markets were closed, markets in America and Europe seem to share the bullish sentiment. The S&P 500 index of large U.S. companies hit its tenth record of 2021, gaining 0.5%, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index was up 0.2%. With the exception of utilities, which were down, and real estate, which was flat, every sector within the S&P was up, led by energy, financials, and materials. Outside of the U.S., Canada’s TSX was up 0.4%, hitting a new high, while the Stoxx Europe 600 index was up 0.7% and the FTSE 100 was up 0.9%.

Oil rose more than 2% on the day while copper continued its relentless ascent to hit its highest level since October 2012. Silver was up 1%, while gold continued to edge lower after peaking in August. Consistent with the improvement in economic sentiment and the normalization of the inflation outlook, longer-term interest rates also edged up, with the 30-year Treasury bond settling above the 2% threshold for the first time since February 2020.

Underlying the bullishness have been two fundamental factors: the cresting of America’s third wave of the coronavirus—the pace of new confirmed cases is down by roughly 60% since the peak at the beginning of the year—and the increasingly likelihood that Congress will pass some big spending bills that should turbocharge the recovery. Should either of those fundamental drivers change, market prices could follow.

Watch our weekly TV show on Fox Business Friday at 10 p.m. ET or 11:30 p.m.; Saturday at 10 a.m. or 11:30 a.m. ET; or Sunday at 8:30 a.m., 10 a.m., or 11:30 a.m. This week, see interviews with Brian Niccol, CEO of Chipotle, and John Streur, CEO of Calvert, which provides the data behind Barron's Most Sustainable Companies list.

 

 


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