Sunday, June 6, 2021

The Jobs Report Was Just Right

 

By Matthew Klein |  Friday, June 4

Goldilocks. The jobs numbers published today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics weren’t too hot or too cold for investors. With half a million private sector jobs added in May, the recovery looks to be broadly on track after April’s disappointing gains. But the increase wasn’t so strong that anyone should be worried about inflationary “overheating” or interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve.

The basic reason is that the cyclically-sensitive construction, manufacturing, and truck-driving sectors have entered a bit of a funk even as employment rebounds at bars, restaurants, hotels, and public and private schools. Outside of education and leisure and hospitality, payrolls rose just 123,000. Job losses continue to mount at grocery stores as consumers return to eating out.

And outside of leisure/hospitality and education, employment remains more than 3% below where it was before the pandemic, for a shortfall of roughly four million workers. That’s the kind of thing that Fed governor Lael Brainard was talking about when she said earlier this week that “the economy is far from our goals.” 

Investors responded accordingly today, pushing down yields on longer-term U.S. Treasury debts and pushing up the prices of stocks, oil, and metals. Real yields on 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities hit their lowest level since the middle of February, down about 0.3 percentage point since the peak in mid-March.

The S&P 500 rose 0.9%, with 10 of 11 sectors in positive territory, while the Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks was up 0.3%. Stocks in Canada and Europe were also up, with the TSX and the STOXX 600 both hitting new records.

Defensive utilities were down slightly, with the rally led by technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary names. Biotech, hardware, software, and semiconductor companies led the pack. Biogen, Tesla, IPG Photonics, Take-Two Interactive Software, Autodesk, Nvidia, and Twitter were the day’s biggest winners.

Construction, materials, and transportation companies were among the day’s worst performers, including Mosaic, American Airlines, Martin Marietta Materials, Vulcan Materials, Old Dominon Freight Line, J.B. Hunt Transportation Services, United Airlines, FedEx, and United Rentals.    

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