Monday, March 7, 2022

A Strong Economy Isn't Enough

 

By Connor Smith |  Friday, March 4

Focused on Russia. U.S. stocks fell today despite a better-than-expected jobs report. Trading continued to be dominated by the war in Ukraine, rising commodity costs, and the ever-worsening geopolitical conditions. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 180 points, or 0.5%, extending this week's decline to 1.3%. The Dow has fallen in four-straight weeks and is off 8.7% from its Jan. 4 record close. It has still fared the best of the big three indexes.

The S&P 500 index dropped 0.8% on the day to fall 9.8% from its Jan. 3 record close. The Nasdaq Composite shed 1.7%, bringing its year-to-date skid to nearly 15%.

The drop came even as the Labor Department said the U.S. added 678,000 jobs in February, well ahead of economists' expectations for 400,000 jobs. The unemployment rate also dropped to 3.8% from 4%. 

Barron's Megan Cassella writes that the report bolsters expectations that the Federal Reserve will move toward a quarter-point rate hike when it meets later this month.

Importantly for the Fed, growth in average hourly earnings for all employees slowed in February after months of sizable increases, rising just one cent over the month to $31.58. Wages are up 5.1% over the year, significantly lower than the 5.8% annual rate economists had been expecting for February. The rebound in jobs for lower-paying industries such as leisure and hospitality, however, could be having an impact. 

At the same time, more than 300,000 people rejoined the labor force in February, the report shows, a positive sign for employers that have been struggling to find workers amid a tight job market. The labor-force participation rate increased slightly to 62.3%, though despite months of improvement it remains well below its February 2020 level of 63.4%.

But the jobs report was overshadowed by fear that a fire at one of Europe's largest nuclear plant signaled new dangers from Russia's invasion. Barron's Jack Denton and Teresa Rivas explained the worry in their market wrap: 

...the situation does “highlight another serious risk factor surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” said Jeffrey Halley, an analyst at broker Oanda. Russia’s tactics seem to be shifting, and the attack on Zaporizhzhia suggests that Moscow is not beyond moves that put wider Europe at risk, he said. Ukraine contains 15 nuclear reactors and the explosion of any one of them is a threat to the entire region, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said early Friday, CNN reported.

“Prevailing winds in the area run from east to west across some of Ukraine’s most important agricultural production areas, and into Western Europe,” Halley added. “It doesn’t take a genius to extrapolate the potential risks associated with that scenario.”

Later on Friday, Russia blocked access to Facebook after parent Meta Platforms took steps to restrict state-affiliated media sources. The company had remained online in Russia despite some calls to pull the plug, arguing its platform could aid citizens and war protestors seeking to organize and seek independent information.

Watch our weekly TV show on Fox Business Saturdays at 10 a.m. or 11:30 a.m. ET; or Sundays at 10 a.m. or 11:30 a.m. ET. This week, an interview with Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer on the Ukraine crisis.

 

 


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