People are living
longer and having fewer kids, presenting new challenges and opportunities.
As demographics shift around the world, socioeconomic consequences
emerge.
BY KELSEY
NOWAKOWSKI PUBLISHED JULY
11, 2019
FOR ALMOST ALL of human history, the Earth’s population has skewed
younger. But since the last World Population Day on July 11, a major shift
occurred: There are now more people age 65 and older than there are under age
five.
World Population Day was established by the United Nations
Development Program in 1989 to bring attention to population
issues. Having more people on the planet is not the only concern, though,
since a population’s age structure matters too.
By 2100,
almost one in four people will be 65 years old or older, while one in 20 will
be younger than five.
Increased longevity is
a remarkable human success story, but having more elderly people also creates a
number of pressing socioeconomic concerns. The global population will continue
to age as these two groups grow in opposite directions. By 2050, the proportion
of the population aged 65 and older will rise to nearly 16 percent—more than
double that of children under five.
“The triangle-shaped population pyramid is a thing of the
past in many countries—now it’s shaped like a barrel,” says researcher Toshiko
Kaneda of the Population Reference Bureau. Fertility declines, the
main driver, along with longer life expectancies shaped this new pattern.
Population pyramid graphs help demographers show age
distribution as a percentage of the population that falls in each age bracket.
More rectangular graphs like a barrel signify that population growth is
slowing, and that population size is more or less uniform across age groups,
while triangle-shaped ones indicate the population is young and growing.
Time to prepare?
Most developed countries have been aging for a century,
giving them time to prepare for the societal-wide changes. But developing
countries will become old before they become rich, Kaneda explains. Many
countries in Latin America and Asia are aging much faster and have less time
and resources to prepare their pension and health-care systems.
What are the consequences of an older global population?
Supporting elderly people is more expensive than caring for young ones.
Pressing issues arise like how to provide long-term care, structure pension
systems, and maintain a labor force. In developed regions like Europe, where 10
percent of the population over age 50 is childless, elderly care is a major
worry.
Developing
countries are aging slowly
Japan’s
oldest population surpassed its youngest in 1978;
Sub-Saharan
Africa’s oldest population won’t do the same until 2079.
The aging trend is most prevalent in Japan, Europe, North
America, and other developed countries. Though the U.S.’s baby boomer
generation started turning 65 in 2011, the country is rather young among other
developed countries, partly due to the higher than average fertility rates of
its immigrant population.
“Not a single country has been able to reverse declining
trends in fertility despite government pleas for people to procreate as has
been done across Europe and in Japan,” Kaneda says. “The aging trend is
persistent.”
Fertility rates are near or below replacement level in all
world regions except Africa.
Sluggish economic development, limited improvement
in female
access to education, and increases in mortality due to the AIDS epidemic have
kept the continent relatively fertile.
Government action
Some developing countries have taken the opposite approach
of aging countries like Japan and Italy by using policy measures to limit
reproduction. China and India introduced family planning initiatives in the
1970s, but China’s had more impact and is aging faster as a result.
But declining fertility rates can have positive effects
too, says Kaneda. When fertility rates decline but the population hasn’t aged
yet, governments can spend more on secondary and higher education, and boost
the economy. Both Thailand and South Korea have seized the opportunity during
this ideal population structure grace period.
No comments:
Post a Comment