Political
Calculations | Posted: Apr 21, 2021 12:52 PM
Not much has
changed over the last two weeks with respect to COVID trends in Arizona. Which
is very good news.
That's
because of what didn't happen after Arizona's economy fully reopened, which we
mark from the lifting of capacity limits on businesses such as bars,
restaurants, gyms, and others that would be considered prime territory for
spreading coronavirus infections. What didn't happen is significant, because
instead of developing a rising trend for COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, ICU
bed usage, and deaths as it did after its first reopening attempt following its
first wave of COVID-19, Arizona has instead experienced steady, relatively flat
levels for all these measures. What had looked like the potential stalling of a
previous trend of improvement is really demonstrating the benefits of
the widespread deployment of Operation Warp Speed's vaccines in Arizona. The
protections offered by the vaccines are enabling the gains of improvement to be
sustained. Even as the kind of activities that would have previously resulted
in the reversal of a positive trend for coronavirus infections have expanded.
That's
evident in the latest updates to the four charts tracking the trends for each
of these measures based on Arizona's high quality data for the numbers of
new cases by test
sample collection date, hospitalizations by
date of admission, deaths by date as
recorded on death certificates, and ICU bed usage.
Since our
last update, the trend for cases has continued moving sideways, with the trends
for both hospitalizations and ICU bed usage now following suit. It will take a
little more time to see if the dataset for deaths attributed to COVID-19 will
follow the same pattern, but the early indicators are that it will.
The next
time we look at Arizona's high quality COVID-19 data, we'll be looking to
confirm the answer to a very different question.
Previously on
Political Calculations
Here is our
previous coverage of Arizona's experience with the coronavirus pandemic,
presented in reverse chronological order.
·
Improving COVID Trends Bottom and
Flatline in Arizona
·
Surge of Migrants, Lifting of
Business Capacity Limits Change Arizona COVID Trends
·
COVID-19 in Retreat in Arizona With
Vaccines Gaining Traction
·
The Ebb and Flow of COVID-19 in
Arizona's ICUs
·
Arizona's Plunging COVID-19
Caseloads and the Vaccines
·
Arizona Enters Downward Trend for
COVID-19 After Second Peak
·
Arizona Passes Second COVID-19 Peak
·
A Tale of Two States and the
Coronavirus
·
COVID-19 Questions, Answers, and
Lessons Learned from Arizona
·
The Deadly Intersection of
Anti-Police Protests and COVID-19
·
2020 Campaign Events Drive Surge in
Arizona COVID Cases
·
Arizona Arrives at Critical
Junction for Coronavirus Cases
·
Arizona To Soon Reach A Critical
Junction For COVID-19
·
Getting More Than Care from
Arizona's COVID ICU Beds
·
Arizona's Decentralized Approach to
Beating COVID
·
Going Back to School with COVID-19
·
Arizona Turns Second Corner Toward
Crushing Coronavirus
·
Arizona's Coronavirus Crest in Rear
View Mirror
·
The Coronavirus Turns a Corner in
Arizona
·
A Delayed First Wave Crests in the
U.S. and a Second COVID-19 Wave Arrives
·
A Closer Look at COVID-19 Deaths in
Arizona
·
The New Epicenter of COVID-19 in
the U.S.
·
How Long Does a Serious COVID
Infection Typically Last?
·
How Deadly is the COVID-19
Coronavirus?
·
Governor Cuomo and the Coronavirus
Models
·
How Do False Test Outcomes Affect
Estimates of the True Incidence of Coronavirus Infections?
·
How Fast Could China's Coronavirus
Spread?
References
We've
continued following Arizona's experience during the coronavirus pandemic
because the state's Department of Health Services makes detailed, high quality
time series data available, which makes it easy to apply the back calculation
method to identify the timing and events that caused changes in the state's
COVID-19 trends. This section links that that resource and many of the others
we've found useful throughout the coronavirus pandemic.
Arizona
Department of Health Services. COVID-19 Data Dashboard: Vaccine Administration.
[Online Database].
Accessed 20 April 2021.
Stephen A.
Lauer, Kyra H. Grantz, Qifang Bi, Forrest K. Jones, Qulu Zheng, Hannah R.
Meredith, Andrew S. Azman, Nicholas G. Reich, Justin Lessler. The Incubation
Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed
Cases: Estimation and Application. Annals of Internal Medicine, 5
May 2020. https://doi.org/10.7326/M20-0504.
U.S. Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention. COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios. [PDF Document]. Updated
10 September 2020.
More or
Less: Behind the Stats. Ethnic minority deaths, climate change and lockdown.
Interview with Kit Yates discussing back calculation. BBC Radio 4.
[Podcast: 8:18 to 14:07]. 29 April 2020.
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