Tuesday, December 28, 2021

Records Are Made to Be Broken

 

By Connor Smith |  Friday, December 10

Streaks Snapped. U.S. equities today clocked in their best week since this past winter. The three major indexes all snapped recent losing streaks, but only the S&P 500 index closed at a record.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped a four-week losing streak in blowout fashion. It rose 0.6% today and 4% on the week. It's still off 1.3% from its record close, set on Nov. 8.

The S&P 500 rose 1%, to a record 4,712.02, bringing this week's haul to 3.8%. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.7%, and 3.6% for the week. The latter two indexes snapped two-week losing streaks with their best percentage gains since the week that ended on Feb. 5.

It was an all-around win for the S&P 500 index. The 11 main sectors represented in the index rose, while 354 of its individual components rose. The benchmark was led by gains for OracleFord MotorBroadcom, and Costco Wholesale.

The strong performance for stocks came despite sobering inflation numbers. Consumer prices rose 0.8% in November from the month earlier, and 6.8% year-over-year,  the fastest annual pace since 1982, writes Barron's Megan Cassella. 

The data put inflation at a level widely expected to prompt the Fed to wind down its asset-purchasing program more quickly, as Chairman Jerome Powell telegraphed last week, and it could pull forward the timing of the central bank’s next interest-rate increase.

Immediately after the news, the CME FedWatch tool, which tracks investors’ expectations for monetary policy via moves in the bond market, showed expectations for three increases in interest rates in 2022 diminished by 1 percentage point. But the decline in expectations for rate increases quickly faded away, underscoring that reasons for concern remain.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note was trading at 1.45%, down from 1.51% before the consumer price index print, writes Barron's Randall W. Forsyth.

The lower bond yield reflected lower inflation expectations, as reflected in the “break-even” spread between nominal Treasury yields and real yields on TIPS, which is the market’s implicit long-range inflation forecast. That indicates the market was looking for an even hotter inflation reading than economists, Mike Schumacher, head of macro strategy at Wells Fargo, writes in a client note.

The 10-year break-even inflation rate contracted to 2.46% from 2.51% before the CPI release, he writes. This continues a trend since mid-November, which shows longer-term inflation expectations easing from a peak of 2.76%, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Though inflation looms, investors can take heart in a strong week for stocks. String two more together, and they call that a winning streak. As Coach Lou Brown said in Major League II: It has happened before.

Watch our TV show on Fox Business Fridays at 9 p.m. or 10:30 p.m. ET; Saturdays at 11 a.m.; or Sundays at 10 a.m. or 11:30 a.m. ET.  This week, an interview with Libby Cantrill, head of public policy at Pimco, on how proposed new taxes could affect your portfolio.

 

 


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