Tuesday, December 28, 2021

A Quadruple-Witching Day

 

By Connor Smith |  Friday, December 17

No Place Like Stay-at-Home. U.S. equites fell again on Friday, as rising Covid-19 cases added to an already strange day for markets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 532 points, or 1.5%, for its worst day since Nov. 30. Only five Dow members rose while 25 fell. The S&P 500 dropped 1% and is down three of the past four weeks. The Nasdaq Composite fared better, dropping less than 0.1% on the day.

The tech-heavy index got an assist from a rally in stay-at-home stocks, which have been beaten down for much of the year. Zoom Video Communications jumped 9.5% for its best day since March 9. The stock is still down 65% from its all-time closing high of $568.34.

It wasn't just Zoom. Stationary bike maker Peloton Interactive rose 6.6% while streaming platform Roku stock closed up about 8%. Online-education firm Chegg, which fell last month following a disappointing outlook amid the reopening, rose 6.4% on Friday.

The so-called stay-at-home stocks tend to move in line with pandemic worries, and fears about the omicron variant were top of mind for investors and businesses alike.

New York state reported 21,027 new Covid-19 cases on Friday, the highest daily mark since the pandemic began. Barron's reporter Josh Nathan-Kazis writes that the holiday season is shaping up to be a grim one.

In a best-case scenario, Omicron would move quickly through the U.S. while causing lower rates of hospitalization and death than earlier waves. That is possible, but with just three weeks of experience with the variant, it’s dangerous to make predictions with any confidence.

Investors should be ready for a very challenging month or two, and substantial uncertainty through the start of next year. Strict lockdowns and school closings still seem unlikely, but economic activity over the coming weeks will likely be depressed.

It isn't just Covid-19 adding to volatile trading in markets. Barron's reporter Jacob Sonenshine writes that while Federal Reserve policy changes have investors on edge, that's not exactly new. 

There was another factor at play on Friday. 

That was “quadruple-witching,” which is when stock options, index futures, single-stock futures, and index options all expire on the same day. When that happens, market makers must hedge their positions, which causes selling. The stock market is experiencing additional volatility because of the quadruple witching, wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.

Lastly, investors are rushing into safe assets to avoid the volatility in stocks. The 10-year Treasury note is seeing its price get bid higher, sending its yield down to 1.39% from a 1.42% closing level Thursday. Even if that yield doesn’t compensate an investor for higher expected inflation, some market participants prefer to park their money in these bonds to avoid the steep losses the stock market can bring at times. Market participants are also moving into the haven U.S. dollar, the global reserve currency. Investors also need to own dollars to buy U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. Dollar index rose 0.4% on Friday. 

As if the pandemic and inflation weren't enough, there was also "witching" roiling markets on Friday.

Watch our TV show Fridays at 9 p.m. or 10:30 p.m. ET; Saturdays at 11 a.m.; or Sundays at 10 a.m. or 11:30 a.m. ET. This week, see interviews with retail analyst Dana Telsey, of Telsey Advisory Group, and Saira Malik, chief investment officer and head of global equities at Nuveen.

 

 


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