Tuesday, February 8, 2022

The Back-to-Normal Rally

 

By Alex Eule |  Tuesday, February 8

This Is Normal. It felt like an old-fashioned rally on Wall Street today, with stocks rising across the board. Unlike the trading that has taken place during much of the pandemic, success today wasn't a choice between lockdowns and re-openings. Stay-at-home plays like Chegg and Peloton Interactive jumped, and so did travel-focused companies like American AirlinesRoyal Caribbean, and Carnival.

It's perhaps another sign of an approaching normalcy as Covid rates fall and masks begin to come off.  

For Chegg, which jumped 16% on the day, the catalyst was a better-than-feared earnings report. The online education company said that while enrollments fell as schools re-opened, students are still turning to Chegg for online help.

For Peloton, the gains were a bit more complicated. After months of bad news, the company said that co-founder John Foley was stepping down as CEO and would be replaced by Barry McCarthy, a former CFO at both Spotify Technology and Netflix. The stationary bike maker is also cutting 20% of its corporate workforce, or about 2,800 jobs. The news sent the stock to its best day ever, closing up 25%. The reaction could be hope that an acquisition is now more likely. Alternatively, it's relief among investors that Peloton is imparting a new sense of discipline after a year of overeager expansion. 

Barron's Connor Smith notes that Peloton is up 54% over the last three trading days. But at today's close of $37, the stock is still a long way from its Covid peak. In January 2021, shares traded as high as $171. 

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up 1.3% on the day, a surprisingly strong performance given rising bond yields. Both the two-year and 10-year Treasury yields saw substantial moves, reaching 1.34% and 1.95%, respectively. Those are the highest levels since the pandemic began. And it's one more sign that investors are putting the Covid era of low interest rates in the rearview mirror.

Meta Platforms is one tech stock that continues to fall regardless of broader sentiment. Shares of the Facebook parent (down 2.1% today) have fallen in every session since last week's disappointing earnings report and outlook. The stock is down 32% over that four-day stretch.

The rest of the week could bring a renewed focus on inflation, with the January consumer price index report due on Thursday. Economists are expecting year-over-year inflation of 7.3%, slightly ahead of December's 7% rise.

The final number could go a long way in shaping the Federal Reserve's March meeting. A softer inflation figure would solidify the likelihood of just one quarter-point increase, while a higher-than-expected CPI could push the Fed to raise its target rate by a half-point, or 50 basis points. As of now, the market is pricing in a 71% chance of the quarter-point rise and a 29% chance of the half-point hike.

 

 


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