by Allison Bell December 23, 2020 at 09:49
AM
One
thing no one predicted about how COVID-19 might affect U.S. health insurers is
that no one dreamed that it could increase their second-quarter
earnings by reducing patients’ use of ordinary health care.
Forecasters
also had a hard time steeling themselves to predict just how much impact a
severe pandemic could have on the world economy.
A
student team supported by Swiss Re shocked the world in 2016, for
example, by predicting that a pandemic comparable to 1918 influenza pandemic
could cause about $4 trillion in economic damage. Former Treasury
Secretary Lawrence Summers has estimated that the COVID-19 pandemic will cost the United States alone
more than $16 trillion.
(Related: If HealthCare.gov Is Worth $17
Billion, What Does That Mean? Health Insurance 2020)
For
our attempt to come up with five questions that might shape our coverage of the
health insurance sector in 2021, see the slideshow above.
Here’s
a review of the questions we proposed for the health insurance market for 2021,
and how well those questions meshed with reality.
1. If HealthCare.gov is worth $17 billion what does that mean?
Value of Question: Poor.
Answer: No
one was talking about that this year. But, in a calmer year, the question may
get more attention.
2. Will the Affordable Care Act public health insurance exchange
programs outlast the ACA?
Value of Question: Unclear.
Answer: Right
now, the question seems to be irrelevant. If, however, the U.S. Supreme Court
rules, in connection with Texas v. California,
that all of the ACA must be thrown out, then questions about the implications
of the demise of the ACA may suddenly be more interesting.
3. Will short-term health insurance policies turn into the next
generation of individual major medical insurance policies??
Value of Question: Satisfactory.
Answer: Short-term
health insurance got some attention this year, but sales levels are
still not clear.
4. Will Haven Healthcare matter?
Value of Question: Good.
Answer: At
this point, the Amazon-JPMorgan-Berkshire Hathaway-backed health benefits
organization does not seem to be making much of a splash. Maybe that will
change in 2021.
5. Will states figure out a way to police health care cost
sharing ministries?
Value of Question: Good.
Answer: Yes.
6. Will life insurance companies become the health
cops?
Value of Question: Good.
Answer: So
far, it looks that way.
7. Will the CVS-Aetna marriage work out?
Value of Question: Good.
Answer: Apparently
so.
7. Will discussions about adding long-term care
benefits to the Medicare program heat up?
Value of Question: Good.
Answer: Yes.
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