Tuesday, May 17, 2022

The Consumer Is Alright

 

By Alex Eule |  Tuesday, May 17

Now That's a Rally. There was no confusing investor sentiment today: stocks opened higher and stayed solidly in positive territory throughout the day, gaining strength in the last few hours of trading. Some might call it a bear market rally, buying on the dip, or a dead cat-bounce. But whatever you call it, stocks ended the day a good bit higher than where they were 24 hours ago. 

The S&P 500 rose 2%, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.8%, for its best day in nearly two weeks. 

A mix of headlines likely triggered the move, including a strong retail sales report and news that Shanghai had achieved three consecutive days without new Covid cases in key areas of the city, a milestone that could ease lockdowns there. 

The retail sales data showed growth of 0.9% from last month and 8.2% from a year ago. Meanwhile, the month-over-month March figure was revised upward to 1.4% from the original 0.7%. Taken together, those data points paint a relatively healthy economic picture. 

"The economy is slowing, but the consumer still looks good and that means the economy is still positioned to avoid a recession," Oanda market strategy Edward Moya wrote today.

"Retail sales in April show that the consumer is weathering the inflationary headwinds," Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, noted.  

The strong consumer, it's worth noting, could complicate the Federal Reserve's plans as it tries to bring down inflation, a topic Fed Chair Jerome Powell once again addressed today, while speaking at a Wall Street Journal conference. 

Powell didn't seem to break new ground with his comments, but he continues to leave no question about the Fed's commitment to reining in prices through rate increases and other actions.

Here's one highlight from the Journal's story on the event

"We will go until we feel like we are at a place where we can say, ‘Yes, financial conditions are at an appropriate place. We see inflation coming down,’” Mr. Powell said. “We will go to that point, and there will not be any hesitation about that.”

Investors have spent most of 2022 worried about what those Fed actions would mean for the economy and the stock market. Today's trading could suggest the market is making peace with the central bank's plans.

 

 


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