Medicaid MCOs Are Likely to See COVID-Related Enrollment Growth

by Lauren Flynn Kelly

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to dominate the news cycle, headlines related to rising unemployment often underscore the impact to Medicaid, but what about the Medicaid managed care organizations that will absorb the newly jobless and uninsured?

"I think that Medicaid MCOs are clearly in the best position to handle the influx of folks," remarks Jerry Vitti, founder and CEO of Healthcare Financial, Inc. While onboarding a wave of new members may put some initial stress on plans, the real "strain" will come from covering new members who have unmet health care needs, he suggests.

Vitti says new enrollees will likely fall into one of two buckets. "One is the previously insured folks who had commercial insurance before they lost their job and have been in the health care system," he observes. This is not likely to be a "super high-demand population." But the second grouping, previously uninsured individuals who may end up enrolling as awareness goes up and barriers to enrollment go down, are likely to have "pent-up and untreated medical [needs] and substance use issues," he predicts.

"I'm hearing from plans I've worked with that on both the MA and the Medicaid side…their [medical loss ratios] have dropped substantially," says Jeff Myers, senior vice president, reimbursement strategy and market access with Catalyst Health Care Consulting. "And though I think their net income is certainly looking up, that means they're busy strengthening their capital position for what they expect to be the next phase, which is a big enrollment spike on both the [Affordable Care Act] marketplace and Medicaid programs."

Myers points out that this is usually the time when managed care rate negotiations would begin with states. "I think the challenge for the few state folks I've talked to is modeling out, in states with extensive managed care programs, what that influx of people is going to look like given what the unemployment rate may look like, and also given whether they’ve expanded [Medicaid] or not," he adds.

For states whose budgets have been stretched thin by COVID-19 testing and presumptive eligibility determinations to guarantee payments to hospitals, the pandemic could be the driving factor in expanding Medicaid where a legislature has historically blocked it. Or it may result in states seeking to expand federal Medicaid funding rather than limit it through block grants, suggests Myers.

From RADAR on Medicare Advantage