By Harris Meyer | June
26, 2017
1. 22 million fewer
Americans would have health insurance in 2026 compared with
current law, slightly less than the estimated 23 million who could lose coverage under the
House GOP bill (the American Health Care Act).
2. 15 million more people would be uninsured in 2018, largely due to elimination of the Affordable Care Act's tax penalty for not having insurance.
3. An estimated 49 million people would be uninsured by 2026, compared with 28 million under current law.
4. The aggregate federal deficit would be reduced by $321 billion from 2017 to 2026, compared with a $119 billion reduction under the AHCA.
5. Federal Medicaid spending would decrease by $772 billion, or 26% over 10 years, compared with an $834 billion reduction under the AHCA.
6. Medicaid enrollment would fall by about 16% by 2026 among people under age 65.
7. The repeal of the Affordable Care Act's tax provisions would cost $541 billion in lost revenue over 10 years.
8. The individual insurance market in most parts of the country would "continue to be stable" in 2020 and beyond, as it would under the ACA.
9. Insurance covering certain services would become more expensive in some areas due to state waivers from essential benefit requirements that would affect nearly half the U.S. population.
10. Individual-market average premiums would rise faster than under current law prior to 2020, then rise more slowly thereafter; by 2026 average premiums would be about 20% lower, largely because plans would pay for less and because of federal funding to directly reduce premiums.
11. Few low-income people would buy insurance starting in 2020 because the lower actuarial value for benchmark plans would lead to significantly higher deductibles.
12. People who need services no longer included in essential benefits in states that waived ACA rules would experience substantial increases in out-of-pocket spending or would forgo those services.
13. In states that waived essential benefits, some people could see large increases in out-of-pocket spending because annual or lifetime benefit limits for some services would no longer be capped.
Source: Congressional Budget Office/Joint Committee on Taxation cost estimate of the Better Care Reconciliation Act of 2017.
2. 15 million more people would be uninsured in 2018, largely due to elimination of the Affordable Care Act's tax penalty for not having insurance.
3. An estimated 49 million people would be uninsured by 2026, compared with 28 million under current law.
4. The aggregate federal deficit would be reduced by $321 billion from 2017 to 2026, compared with a $119 billion reduction under the AHCA.
5. Federal Medicaid spending would decrease by $772 billion, or 26% over 10 years, compared with an $834 billion reduction under the AHCA.
6. Medicaid enrollment would fall by about 16% by 2026 among people under age 65.
7. The repeal of the Affordable Care Act's tax provisions would cost $541 billion in lost revenue over 10 years.
8. The individual insurance market in most parts of the country would "continue to be stable" in 2020 and beyond, as it would under the ACA.
9. Insurance covering certain services would become more expensive in some areas due to state waivers from essential benefit requirements that would affect nearly half the U.S. population.
10. Individual-market average premiums would rise faster than under current law prior to 2020, then rise more slowly thereafter; by 2026 average premiums would be about 20% lower, largely because plans would pay for less and because of federal funding to directly reduce premiums.
11. Few low-income people would buy insurance starting in 2020 because the lower actuarial value for benchmark plans would lead to significantly higher deductibles.
12. People who need services no longer included in essential benefits in states that waived ACA rules would experience substantial increases in out-of-pocket spending or would forgo those services.
13. In states that waived essential benefits, some people could see large increases in out-of-pocket spending because annual or lifetime benefit limits for some services would no longer be capped.
Source: Congressional Budget Office/Joint Committee on Taxation cost estimate of the Better Care Reconciliation Act of 2017.
Harris Meyer is a senior reporter providing news
and analysis on a broad range of healthcare topics. He served as managing
editor of Modern Healthcare from 2013 to 2015. His more than three decades of
journalism experience includes freelance reporting for Health Affairs, Kaiser
Health News and other publications; law editor at the Daily Business Review in
Miami; staff writer at the New Times alternative weekly in Fort Lauderdale,
Fla.; senior writer at Hospitals & Health Networks; national correspondent
at American Medical News; and health unit researcher at WMAQ-TV News in
Chicago. A graduate of Northwestern University, Meyer won the 2000 Gerald Loeb
Award for Distinguished Business and Financial Journalism.
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