Statistically, owning stocks from Nov. 1 until April 30
of each year and getting out of the market for the other half of the year has
been a winning strategy. Since both of their inceptions, the S&P 500 and
Dow Jones Industrial Average have each gained an average of about 5% during
the November-to-April period, and only 2% from May through October. That
historical tendency to underperform has led to the Wall Street adage
“sell in May and go away.”
There are many reasons for the underperformance during
the summer and early fall months. A big one is that some of the market’s
biggest crashes have come during that time—2020 so far not included. And
trading volume tends to be slightly lower, possibly amplifying sudden swings
in the market.
As spring arrives, flowers start to appear, and it
signals for investors to sell their stocks and take some time off, so they
say. Exciting new vacation destinations might be difficult to find this year
given physical distancing requirements, but the case for paring back some
market exposure on May 1 is worth considering nonetheless.
Since Nov. 1, 2019, the S&P 500 has slipped
4%. Of course that number obscures some unprecedented volatility. The index
rose 11% from November through late February, tumbled 34% in the next month,
and immediately bounced back. Since March 23, the S&P 500 is up 32%.
Historical track record aside, there are some good
reasons to be cautious about the market in the near future. The S&P 500
has gained nearly a third since late March, but amid the coronavirus
pandemic, the road to recovery for the U.S. economy is going to be a long and
uneven one. That means it could be time for stocks to at least take a
breather.
“Stocks are up more than 30% from the March lows,
suggesting a well-deserved pullback during these troublesome months is quite
possible,” LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan
Detrick wrote today.
And the potential pitfalls are numerous. Chief among
them: If beginning to open the valve of economic activity results in a
significant uptick in new coronavirus cases, expectations of a quick return
to normality from here may prove to be too optimistic. The market won’t like
that a bit.
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Thursday, April 30, 2020
'Sell in May and Go Away,' as They Say
Big Tech's Big Weight
By Nicholas Jasinski | Thursday, April 30
Not the Cruelest Month. A dose of dire economic data from both sides of the
Atlantic knocked stock indexes lower today. Jobless claims, retail spending,
and gross domestic product figures all illustrated the depths of the
coronavirus shutdown's impact on economies across the globe.
But you wouldn't know it from the past month of stock
market action. The S&P 500 ticked down 0.9%
today, to end April up 12.7%—its largest one month percentage gain since
January 1987. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average dropped 1.2% today, for a 11.1% gain in April,
and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.3%, to
close the month up 15.4%.
The Department of
Labor reported this
morning that another 3.8 million people filed initial claims for unemployment
benefits last week, bringing the total newly out of work since the
coronavirus struck the U.S. economy to more than 30 million. A separate report
showed that consumer spending fell 7.5% in March from a month earlier—the
biggest monthly drop on record—as many consumers held back on all but essential
purchases.
Across the pond, data showed that eurozone GDP dropped
3.8% in the first quarter. Christine
Lagarde, head of the European
Central Bank,
warned that the region's economy could contract by 5% to 12% this
year, depending on how long economically disruptive efforts to
contain the spread of coronavirus remain in place. The ECB said it would lower
interest rates on existing loans to banks and offer new long-term loans, but
chose not to scale up a bond-buying initiative called the Pandemic
Emergency Purchase Program. Investors
were disappointed, having hoped the size of the program would be increased.
European stock indexes fell after Lagarde spoke, with
beleaguered European banks especially hard hit by the announcement. The Euro
Stoxx 600 index closed down 2%, while the Euro
Stoxx Bank Index fell
another 5.5% today after already having lost nearly half its value since
February.
Amazon.com
and Apple added their
first-quarter reports to the parade of earnings releases out this week.
Contrary to strong results from fellow tech behemoths Alphabet, Facebook, and Microsoft over the past two days, theirs
were decidedly more mixed.
Amazon's revenues soared from a year ago as stuck-at-home
consumers ordered more goods on the website, but costs also jumped as a result
of new safety measures and other coronavirus-related expenses. Apple beat Wall Street estimates, but suffered a 7%
drop in iPhone sales and withdrew its guidance for the rest of the current
quarter. Both companies' shares were down in after-hours trading.
Still, three out of five ain't bad. And there was
quietly a lot riding on how big tech did over the past three days. The group is
responsible for a nearly a quarter of the S&P 500's market value, up
several percentage points from the start of the year. For comparison, the
entire beaten-down energy sector is under 3% of the index's market value.
So just
a 5% drop for the big five would take a nearly 50% tumble for the energy
sector to have the same impact on the S&P 500.
Some Texans may continue receiving unemployment if they can’t return to work
Gov. Greg Abbott on Thursday announced new guidance to allow workers who
cannot return to work because of certain health-related concerns to continue
receiving unemployment benefits from the state.
"As the Lone Star State begins the process of safely and strategically opening the economy, our top priority is protecting the health and safety of all Texans—especially those who are most vulnerable to COVID-19," Abbott said in a statement. "This flexibility in the unemployment benefit process will help ensure that Texans with certain health and safety concerns will not be penalized for choosing not to return to work."
Previously, workers could be taken off unemployment if they received an offer of "suitable work" and refused it. But Abbott’s new guidance to the Texas Workforce Commission, gave a list of reasons that would allow Texans with health concerns to continue receiving unemployment.
Here is the list for who qualifies.
"As the Lone Star State begins the process of safely and strategically opening the economy, our top priority is protecting the health and safety of all Texans—especially those who are most vulnerable to COVID-19," Abbott said in a statement. "This flexibility in the unemployment benefit process will help ensure that Texans with certain health and safety concerns will not be penalized for choosing not to return to work."
Previously, workers could be taken off unemployment if they received an offer of "suitable work" and refused it. But Abbott’s new guidance to the Texas Workforce Commission, gave a list of reasons that would allow Texans with health concerns to continue receiving unemployment.
Here is the list for who qualifies.
Abbott’s reopen plan is short on triggers for easing or tightening measures, experts say
Gov. Greg Abbott says he is relying on data and doctors to gradually
reopen the state beginning Friday, when Texans will be able to visit
restaurants, malls and movie theaters in limited numbers.
The phased restart will be monitored through increased testing and tracking of new coronavirus cases, a move all experts say is necessary. By mid-May more businesses could open up, barring a sharp rise in COVID-19 cases, Abbott says.
But where the plan is long on hope, it’s short on goals or quantifiable triggers the state will use to decide whether to further relax social distancing or ramp it back up, experts say.
The phased restart will be monitored through increased testing and tracking of new coronavirus cases, a move all experts say is necessary. By mid-May more businesses could open up, barring a sharp rise in COVID-19 cases, Abbott says.
But where the plan is long on hope, it’s short on goals or quantifiable triggers the state will use to decide whether to further relax social distancing or ramp it back up, experts say.
California Sees Calls to Suicide Hotlines Skyrocket
From the story: In February, Levitan and her colleagues — 70 full-time staff members
and 215 volunteers — took 22 calls on the suicide and disaster helplines
related to coronavirus. In March, that number soared to 1,800 calls — more than
an 8,000% increase (OC Register). Meanwhile, the governor of
California is being accused of hiding his billion dollar coronavirus mask deal
(Sacramento Bee).
Study Finds Smokers Less Likely to Get Coronavirus
Prompting this: “…the researchers insisted they were not
encouraging the population to take up smoking, which carries other potentially
fatal health risks and kills 50% of those who take it up” (The Guardian). Also complicating the
things-we-thought-we-understood-about-COVID-19: a study claims two-thirds of
seriously ill patients didn’t have a fever (ABC News).
Add to that, a medical journal says closing schools may not be helping (The Lancet).
But wait, there’s more! The FDA says there’s no evidence you can get the virus through food. From the story: There’s still a risk of catching the bug when restocking your pantry. But you’re more likely to be infected by someone coughing inside the store than by touching your groceries, said Dr. Leana Wen, the former Baltimore health commissioner (NY Post).
Add to that, a medical journal says closing schools may not be helping (The Lancet).
But wait, there’s more! The FDA says there’s no evidence you can get the virus through food. From the story: There’s still a risk of catching the bug when restocking your pantry. But you’re more likely to be infected by someone coughing inside the store than by touching your groceries, said Dr. Leana Wen, the former Baltimore health commissioner (NY Post).
Americans are Suffering from Quarantine Fatigue
And many are getting out, regardless (NY Post). They’re swarming the beaches
of California (Washington Times). John Fund looks at
the Hong Kong Flu of the late 60’s that is similar to this one and killed a
million people worldwide (National Review).
COVID Deaths Fall to Lowest Single Day Level Since April 6
According to the COVID Tracking Project (Twitter). But several sites tracking
daily deaths and cases (NY Times, Johns Hopkins, Worldometers, Our World in Data) are not on the same
page. From another story: In an appearance on Fox News’ “Watters World,”
Birx indicated that the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths are expected to
drastically decrease next month. “We believe that both the hospitalizations,
the ICU need, and frankly, the number of people who have succumbed to this
disease will be dramatically decreased by the end of May,” she said
(Red State).
Governors Nationwide Weigh Pros and Cons of Opening Up
Some more cautious than others (NY Times).
Meanwhile, Virginia Health Commissioner Norman Oliver said Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam’s “Phase One” coronavirus response plan could last two years (Washington Examiner).
From a fascinating story at the Wall Street Journal: No conclusions can be drawn about the states that sheltered quickly, because their death rates ran the full gamut, from 20 per million in Oregon to 360 in New York. This wide variation means that other variables—like population density or subway use—were more important. Our correlation coefficient for per-capita death rates vs. the population density was 44%. That suggests New York City might have benefited from its shutdown—but blindly copying New York’s policies in places with low Covid-19 death rates, such as my native Wisconsin, doesn’t make sense (WSJ).
Because the jobs can’t be done from home, Las Vegas is seeing a particularly daunting unemployment rate (NY Times).
Girl scouts are getting a federal recovery loan to offset lost cookie sales (Washington Times).
Meanwhile, Virginia Health Commissioner Norman Oliver said Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam’s “Phase One” coronavirus response plan could last two years (Washington Examiner).
From a fascinating story at the Wall Street Journal: No conclusions can be drawn about the states that sheltered quickly, because their death rates ran the full gamut, from 20 per million in Oregon to 360 in New York. This wide variation means that other variables—like population density or subway use—were more important. Our correlation coefficient for per-capita death rates vs. the population density was 44%. That suggests New York City might have benefited from its shutdown—but blindly copying New York’s policies in places with low Covid-19 death rates, such as my native Wisconsin, doesn’t make sense (WSJ).
Because the jobs can’t be done from home, Las Vegas is seeing a particularly daunting unemployment rate (NY Times).
Girl scouts are getting a federal recovery loan to offset lost cookie sales (Washington Times).
Florida Delivering Robotic Dogs to Keep Elderly Company
They believe fake dogs will make them happy.
NY Post
NY Post
California Governor Cracks Down: Closing All Beaches Starting May 1st
According to Fox LA reporter Bill Melugin, a bulletin “will be sent
out to all California police chiefs notifying them that tomorrow, Governor
Newsom will announce the closure of ALL beaches and state parks effective May
1st in response to recent beach crowds in OC” (Twitter).
From Ben Shapiro: This is a terrible idea. All that will happen is that people will drive to city parks. That’s precisely why there was overcrowding in Newport: they shut down beaches in LA. It is a very good thing for people to be outside, so long as they are socially distancing (Twitter).
From Karol Markowicz: Between this and the announcement Cuomo made that they are just now going to start sanitizing the subway…I’m starting to feel like the rock star governors aren’t actually doing that good a job. It’s too late to do something like this. It’s time to go in the other direction (Twitter).
Meanwhile, more and more people in more and more cities are demanding a chance to start life again (Washington Examiner).
There’s a rally planned for Ventura, California (WeHaveRights).
From Ben Shapiro: This is a terrible idea. All that will happen is that people will drive to city parks. That’s precisely why there was overcrowding in Newport: they shut down beaches in LA. It is a very good thing for people to be outside, so long as they are socially distancing (Twitter).
From Karol Markowicz: Between this and the announcement Cuomo made that they are just now going to start sanitizing the subway…I’m starting to feel like the rock star governors aren’t actually doing that good a job. It’s too late to do something like this. It’s time to go in the other direction (Twitter).
Meanwhile, more and more people in more and more cities are demanding a chance to start life again (Washington Examiner).
There’s a rally planned for Ventura, California (WeHaveRights).
FDA Considering Quick Greenlight to Drug Helping COVID-19 Patients
From the story: Federal health regulators are exploring whether
to greenlight the emergency use of a Gilead
Sciences Inc. GILD 5.68% drug in serious Covid-19 patients,
after U.S. government researchers reported the therapy helped the patients recover
faster (WSJ).
From Dr. Fauci: “What it has proven is that a drug can block this virus” (ABC News).
More good news from another story: The pharmaceutical giant Pfizer said Tuesday that a new coronavirus vaccine could be tested as early as next week — with the potential for emergency use by fall, a report said Tuesday (NY Post).
Meanwhile, The New York Times is putting names, faces and stories to many who have died (NY Times).
From Dr. Fauci: “What it has proven is that a drug can block this virus” (ABC News).
More good news from another story: The pharmaceutical giant Pfizer said Tuesday that a new coronavirus vaccine could be tested as early as next week — with the potential for emergency use by fall, a report said Tuesday (NY Post).
Meanwhile, The New York Times is putting names, faces and stories to many who have died (NY Times).
CMS Announces Independent Commission to Address Safety and Quality in Nursing Homes
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CMS Announces
Independent Commission to Address Safety and Quality in Nursing Homes
Commission
will comprehensively examine best practices in responding to COVID-19 in
nursing homes
As a part of President
Trump’s Opening Up America Again effort, the Centers for Medicare &
Medicaid Services (CMS) announced a new independent Commission that will
conduct a comprehensive assessment of the nursing home response to the 2019
Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The Commission will provide
independent recommendations to the contractor to review and report to CMS to
help inform immediate and future responses to COVID-19 in nursing homes. This
unprecedented effort builds upon the agency’s five-part plan unveiled last April to
ensure safety and quality in America’s nursing homes, as well as recent CMS
efforts to combat the spread of COVID-19 within these facilities.
Tomorrow marks the beginning of Older Americans Month and, as we take this
time to honor seniors, CMS remains committed to enacting policies that
benefit our Nation’s seniors.
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CMS NEWS: CMS Announces Independent Commission to Address Safety and Quality in Nursing Homes
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CMS NEWS
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
April 30, 2020
Contact: CMS Media
Relations
(202) 690-6145 | CMS Media Inquiries
CMS Announces Independent Commission to Address Safety and
Quality in Nursing Homes
Commission will comprehensively examine best practices in
responding to COVID-19 in nursing homes
As a part of President
Trump’s Opening Up America Again effort, the Centers for Medicare &
Medicaid Services (CMS) announced a new independent Commission that will
conduct a comprehensive assessment of the nursing home response to the 2019
Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The Commission will provide
independent recommendations to the contractor to review and report to CMS to
help inform immediate and future responses to COVID-19 in nursing homes. This
unprecedented effort builds upon the agency’s five-part plan unveiled last April to ensure
safety and quality in America’s nursing homes, as well as recent CMS efforts
to combat the spread of COVID-19 within these facilities. Tomorrow
marks the beginning of Older Americans Month and, as we take this time to honor
seniors, CMS remains committed to enacting policies that benefit our Nation’s
seniors.
“Safeguarding the health
and, promoting the wellbeing and quality of life, of the most vulnerable and
fragile citizens is a top priority for CMS,” said CMS Administrator Seema
Verma. “CMS has repeatedly taken early unprecedented, aggressive and
decisive action to protect nursing home residents during this pandemic.
And today, we are taking it one step further by asking that an independent
Commission provide recommendations to further enhance efforts at the federal,
state and local level, and help strengthen the Nation’s response to
Coronavirus and keeping residents safe in nursing homes.”
Building on the Trump
Administration’s actions to protect seniors, the Commission will help inform
efforts to safeguard the health and quality of life of vulnerable Americans
as CMS continues to battle COVID-19 as well as preparing for future threats
to resident safety and public health. The Commission will include
leading industry experts, family members, clinicians, resident/patient
advocates, medical ethicists, administrators, academicians, infection control
and prevention professionals, state and local authorities, and other selected
experts. It is expected to convene in late May and develop recommendations on
three key tasks:
Additionally, the Commission
will focus on identifying potentially innovative approaches to using nursing
home data to allow for better coordination between federal surveyors, state
and local entities, and nursing homes to address the current spread of
COVID-19 in nursing homes. The Commission will also use data to assess
efforts across the country to stop or contain the virus within these
facilities. Additional information related to the Commission will be
available soon.
“As we get ready to
celebrate Older Americans Month, it is a reminder of how important the work
we do at CMS is to ensuring seniors have access to quality care, not only
during times like this, but at all times,” said CMS Administrator Seema
Verma. “CMS will continue to use every tool at our disposal to protect
the beneficiaries we serve.”
The new Commission is the
most recent action in the Trump Administration’s rapid and aggressive
response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The full list of CMS Public Health Action
for Nursing Homes on COVID-19 to date is in the chart below.
For more information on
the Commission, visit: https://www.cms.gov/files/document/coronavirus-commission-safety-and-quality-nursing-homes.pdf.
CMS also released guidance
to State Survey Agencies for the award and administration of supplemental
funding provided by the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security
(CARES) Act (P.L. 116-136). For information on the CARES Act grants to State
Survey Agencies, visit: https://www.cms.gov/files/document/cares-act-financial-guidance-state-survey-agencies.pdf
This action, and earlier
CMS actions in response to the COVID-19 virus, are part of the ongoing White
House Task Force efforts. To keep up with the important work the Task Force
is doing in response to COVID-19 click here www.coronavirus.gov. For information
specific to CMS, please visit the Current Emergencies Website.
###
Get CMS news at cms.gov/newsroom, sign up for CMS news via email and follow CMS on Twitter CMS
Administrator @SeemaCMS, @CMSgov, and @CMSgovPress.
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Trump Administration Issues Second Round of Sweeping Changes to Support U.S. Healthcare System During COVID-19 Pandemic
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Trump Administration
Issues Second Round of Sweeping Changes to Support U.S. Healthcare System
During COVID-19 Pandemic
At President Trump’s direction, and building on its recent historic efforts to help the U.S. healthcare system manage the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services today issued another round of sweeping regulatory waivers and rule changes to deliver expanded care to the nation’s seniors and provide flexibility to the healthcare system as America reopens. These changes include making it easier for Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries to get tested for COVID-19 and continuing CMS’s efforts to further expand beneficiaries’ access to telehealth services. Full press release |
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Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has sent this
Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation (CMMI) Update. To contact Centers
for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) go to our contact
us page.
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Trump Administration Issues Second Round of Sweeping Changes to Support U.S. Healthcare System During COVID-19 Pandemic
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New Frequently Asked Questions on EMTALA
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COVID-19 in Rural America – Is There Cause for Concern?
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Just Released
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COVID-19 in Rural America – Is There Cause for Concern?
While
to date big cities and major urban areas have seen the greatest number of
coronavirus cases and deaths, a new KFF analysis finds the growth rate is now higher in
rural areas, where the population tends to be older, younger people are more
likely to have high-risk health conditions, and there are fewer
intensive-care beds.
The
analysis finds that in the two-week period ending April 27, non-metro, mostly
rural counties saw a 125% increase in coronavirus cases (from 51 to 115 cases
per 100,000 people) and a 169% increase in deaths (from 1.6 to 4.4 deaths per
100,000 people). Meanwhile, metro counties saw a 68% increase in cases (from
195 cases per 100,000 people to 328) and a 113% increase in deaths (from 8.0
deaths per 100,000 people to 17.0).
Some
counties with the highest rates of cases and deaths are located in Georgia,
Oklahoma and Montana, which are beginning to ease social-distancing measures
originally implemented to slow the spread of coronavirus. The analysis
suggests such states could face particular challenges in easing such
restrictions, given recent case and death trends in their rural counties.
Filling the need for trusted
information on national health issues, the Kaiser Family Foundation is a nonprofit
organization based in San Francisco, California.
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