Tuesday, October 5, 2021

Optimism for a Day

 

By Alex Eule |  Friday, October 1

Some Relief. It took a few days, but stocks finally had their rebound. The S&P 500 rose 1.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 483 points, or 1.4%. After a rough week, investors got some good news: a government shutdown was averted last night, and there's new hope in the battle against Covid-19, with a promising antiviral pill from Merck potentially cutting hospitalizations by 50%. Meanwhile, a closely watched signal of manufacturing activity was up more than expected, suggesting an economic rebound remains in place despite the Delta variant and the persistence of Covid. 

The Merck news set off a rush to reopening-type stocks, similar to what we saw in the early days of the vaccine euphoria. Hotels, cruise lines, and casino stocks jumped, while stay-at-home plays like Peloton Interactive, Shopify, Chewy, and Etsy were all in negative territory. 

Merck itself was up 8.4% on the day. Covid vaccine maker Moderna fell 11%, with investors betting that new treatments could lessen demand for vaccines. 

For investors, Monday could bring renewed uncertainty. Democrats in Congress continue to work on a deal for up to $4.5 trillion in spending. At one point, a vote on the $1 trillion infrastructure bill was expected today, but late in the day President Joe Biden asked his party to hold off on that vote until a deal was struck on his larger $3.5 trillion social spending package. That's likely to stretch the debate over fiscal policy into next week, if not longer. 

The risk of a default will still hover over markets next week, as well, with no progress yet toward lifting or suspending the debt ceiling. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said the U.S. could run out of measures to avoid default by Oct. 18 if the debt ceiling isn't modified. 

That's not a pleasant thought, and it could make for some challenging weeks ahead. This week, the S&P 500 finished down 2.2%, its largest weekly decline since late February.  

 

 


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