Friday, May 28, 2021

Ford's Transformation

 

By Nicholas Jasinski |  Thursday, May 27

Data Galore. Several economic data releases this morning drove today's trading, with their combined message underlining the strength of the ongoing recovery. Cyclical and economically sensitive pockets of the market outperformed more growth and pandemic-oriented areas.

Released this morning, U.S. orders for durable goods unexpectedly fell 1.3% in April, while economists on average had been anticipating an increase of close to 1%. But a key subset of the data showed a much stronger economy, wrote Barron's Lisa Beilfuss.

Durable goods orders are closely watched because they’re seen as a decent proxy for business investment. They include orders for things like vehicles and airplanes, industrial machinery, computer equipment, and other goods meant to last at least three years.

Economists like to zoom in on orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft. That leaves out the more volatile military and transportation categories of the headline index. And by that measure,  orders jumped a better-than-expected 2.3% in the month, their best gain since last August.

 Joel Naroff, president and chief economist of Naroff Economics, noted today that the increased business investment is stepping in right as federal stimulus spending begins to fade.

"The first sign of that was the Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Index, which hit its highest level in the 45 years of the measure’s existence,"  he wrote to clients today. "But action speaks louder, and the CEO exuberance is translating into increasing investment spending...Businesses are voting with their money and the voting is starting to go solidly in favor of strong future growth."

Accordingly, industrials stocks were the biggest winners in the S&P 500 today, up 1.4%. General Electric stock surged 7.1%, Boeing added 3.9%, and Honeywell International rose 3.1%. Defensive consumer staples and utilities were the day's laggards, while technology stocks also closed in the red.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.4%, and the S&P 500 added 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite was virtually unchanged today.

Other strong data out this morning included the lowest weekly initial jobless claims number since the start of the pandemic, and a marked decline in continuing claims to boot. Plus, the Bureau of Economic Analysis kept its first-quarter GDP growth number unchanged at 6.4%.

Lisa has more on all of that here, and Matthew Klein digs deeper into the durable goods report here.

Tomorrow morning brings more data: The BEA will report figures on consumer earnings and spending in April.

 

 


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