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An analysis
by Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics
Click on the
chart to enlarge
The Conference Board predicts a 96 percent likelihood of a
recession in the US within the next 12 months, based on our probability
model. This supports our expectation of a recession before the end of 2022 caused by
the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes. The last quarter of 2022 and
the first quarter of 2023 are likely to see negative real GDP growth
rates.
While recession probability hovered near zero after the initial phase
of the global pandemic from September 2020 to March 2022, it rose to
over 30 percent in April and reached 50 percent in May. This means that
the US economy is likely to enter a recession within a year from that point
onward. The probability has kept rising since then.
Recession probability models are also useful in signaling the end of
economic downturns. They tend to fall rapidly shortly before recessions
end. In other words, the likelihood of the economy being in recession
within the next twelve months falls below 50 quickly, usually within
one or two months. We will monitor this measure to help assess when the
US economy will start climbing out of the imminent recession.
For more information on our US recession probability model please see our website.
The
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