Wednesday, October 5, 2022

Rally Interrupted

By Nicholas Jasinski  |  Wednesday, October 5

U-Turn. Coming off a nearly 6% gain in the past two days, the S&P 500 opened deep in the red this morning, down some 1.2%. Recent days' buying appetite wasn't gone for good, however. The index rallied through the day to trade in positive territory by about 3 p.m., then slipped slightly to close down just 0.2%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite followed similar patterns, opening low, reversing their losses, then losing their gains in the last hour of trading. The Dow closed down 0.1% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.2%.

The rally to start this week was based on bad-news-is-good-news reasoning. JOLTS and ISM manufacturing data both suggested a softening U.S. labor market, which could help alleviate inflationary pressures in the economy and give the Federal Reserve cover to increase interest rates less aggressively. Bond yields fell and stocks rose on Monday and Tuesday.

But today's economic data showed that optimistic narrative isn't a done deal, and that the Fed still has plenty of work ahead of it.

September private payrolls figures from ADP this morning showed 208,000 new jobs, beating the 200,000 consensus estimate. The prior month's tally was also upwardly revised to 185,000, from 132,000. It could be a preview of this Friday's September employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Also this morning, ISM's services gauge for September came in at 56.7, above the consensus for 56.0 and about matching August's figure. Not exactly screaming "recession" either.

Maybe the economy isn't in such poor shape to prompt a Fed pivot after all. Treasury yields across the curve rose today, undoing a portion of recent days' moves lower. Major stock indexes are still 5% higher today than they were just at the end of last week, but investors certainly aren't out of the woods yet.

Friday morning's September jobs report will be the next major release that could potentially shape that macro narrative. Then third-quarter earnings season picks up next week, which could bring the focus back to the micro. In aggregate, S&P 500 earnings per share are seen rising 3.1% from a year ago.

DJIA: -0.14% to 30,273.87
S&P 500: 
-0.20% to 3,783.28
Nasdaq: 
-0.25% to 11,148.64

The Hot Stock: Illumina +6.6%
The Biggest Loser: Lumen Technologies 
-9.5%  

Best Sector: Energy +2.1%
Worst Sector: Utilities
 -2.2%

A one-day chart of the major indexes.


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