Eakinomics: Are States Going to Be All Open, or Just Mostly Open?

In the modern classic The Princess Bride, Miracle Max introduces the important distinction between “mostly dead” and “all dead”: “Whoo-hoo-hoo, look who knows so much. It just so happens that your friend here is only MOSTLY dead. There's a big difference between mostly dead and all dead.”

It seems to be that the same distinction applies to re-opening state economies. A governor can lift all legal restrictions against the conduct of production and commerce, but if customers are afraid to go out and shop, workers are afraid to go to work, and employers are afraid to operate their facilities, the economy will remain only mostly open. To get all open will require addressing the fears that can derail the intention to open.

One set of fears revolves around the coronavirus and the status of the public health mission. Here, progress on testing (to identify who does and does not have infections or antibody resistance), treatment (to lower the stakes of getting an infection), and vaccines (to make testing and treatment irrelevant) are necessary. No single one of these three areas is the magic bullet and no single one should be considered the priority. A full-court press on all three is appropriate.

A second set of fears revolves around the workplace. What standards will assure workers that it is safe to return to work? Who will set those standards? Will they vary by state or be set, for example, by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration?

A final set of fears is the concern by businesses that they will be held liable for the impacts of coronavirus, even if infections occur outside the workplace. They are interested in protection from litigation if their workplaces meet a standard of safety, and for other reasons.

The tough part of these issues is getting a handle on the magnitudes involved. Are a lot of people fearful, or not? What genuinely assuages those fears? It will be interesting to monitor Georgia, Alaska, and other early-moving states to see the degree to which they actually “all open” to the full extent possible.