For the first
time since the 1980s, the U.S. Treasury has decided to sell 20-year bonds.
"All it took was for the U.S. budget deficit to explode into the
trillions," Barron's Randall
Forsyth wrote today.
A 20-year bond
isn't all that novel, given that the U.S. government already sells 10- and
30-year securities. But it's one more tool in the federal arsenal to fund the
coming wave of Covid-19 related debt. The Treasury needs to raise $2.99
trillion this quarter and $4.5 trillion in the fiscal year ending in
September.
The
re-introduction of a 20-year bond raises a bigger question, though, Randy says.
Should the U.S. sell a 100-year bond? There's a good argument for
it. Here's Randy:
Other countries have gone
that route, including Austria, which last year issued a second tranche of its
2.1% bonds due in 2117. For bond investors to lock in their money well into the
next century for so paltry a coupon and in a currency, the euro, with only a
limited track record, seemed crazy at the time. They were the
wise ones, as the Austrian century bonds recently traded at a price over 200,
or twice their face value.
Some U.S.
universities have already issued 100-year bonds, Randy notes. They've returned
30% over the past year.
Randy
advocated for a 100-year bond back in a 2016 Barron's cover story: "Given
that the United States of America is 240 years old and has an infinite life
expectancy, we hope, issuing 50-year or 100-year bonds makes sense."
A century from now, we even
can be confident that Covid-19 will be a thing of the distant past.
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