Humana, Centene Maintain 2020 Earnings Outlook Amid COVID-19 Pandemic

by Peter Johnson

Humana Inc. and Centene Corp. are both maintaining their 2020 earnings outlook despite the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic and economic contraction at the end of the first quarter.

Humana's revenues increased to $18.9 billion, and it reported $5.40 in adjusted earnings per share (EPS), beating the Wall Street consensus of $4.66 adjusted EPS. Centene's first quarter revenues increased 41% year-over-year to $26 billion, and it reported an adjusted EPS of $0.86. Centene fell short of the consensus with $0.99 adjusted EPS. Both insurers affirmed their projections for the end of the year, with Humana forecasting adjusted EPS of $18.25 to $18.75 and Centene $4.56 to $4.76.

But both companies warned that the pandemic and recession presented substantial risk, and noted that utilization could spike in the latter half of 2020 due to pent-up demand. They also reported that utilization dropped toward the end of the first quarter, and anticipated the same result for the second.

Analysts were cautiously optimistic about both firms' outlook for the rest of the year. "We believe that Humana boasts a compelling growth opportunity in the increasingly appealing [Medicare Advantage] market. Furthermore, the company also has an opportunity to drive margins given a potentially more favorable reimbursement environment and the maturation of its high-growth member base," Oppenheimer's Michael Wiederhorn wrote in an April 29 note.

Despite Centene's seemingly less impressive results, analysts were positive or neutral about the firm's first-quarter performance.

Windley wrote in an April 28 note regarding Centene that "we aren't expecting ridiculously low 2Q [medical loss ratios] as management guards against an increase in utilization and claims severity. That said, the delay in procedures and incremental revenue from higher Medicaid/[health exchange] membership helps absorb new headwinds such as slower WellCare synergy capture, COVID-19 treatment costs, and adverse impacts on investment income/interest expense."

Though Centene's results were less robust than Humana's, the company indicated it is in a strong position for the remainder of the year. The company has a large Medicaid managed care book, and Medicaid enrollment is certain to spike due to layoffs caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

From Health Plan Weekly