Category: Annual Medicare Plan Changes Published on
2019-09-25 16:06:07
National
average Medicare Part D premiums decrease - while average Part D premiums
weighted by 2019 enrollment increase.
A preliminary analysis of the 2020 stand-alone Medicare Part D prescription drug plans (PDPs) found that the national average 2020 Part D premium (not considering plan enrollment) decreased 13% from $47.21 in 2019 to $40.90 in 2020, supporting the CMS projection of the monthly Medicare Part D plan premiums decreasing over the past plan-years.
However, the national average monthly 2020 Medicare Part D premium, weighted by the number of people currently enrolled in each plan will increase to $41.40 or an 6% increase over the 2019 weighted monthly premium of $39.13. The national weighted-average monthly premium increase means that if everyone stays in their current 2019 stand-alone Medicare Part D prescription drug plan through 2020, many beneficiaries will see an increase in their monthly premium.
Contrary to past years, the weighted average Medicare Part D premium is higher than the un-weighted average premium. This is due to the fact that a number of popular low-premium Medicare Part D plans are changing their plans to more expensive, feature-rich plans. For example, in Florida the 2019 Humana Walmart Rx Plan (S5884-157) ($29.60 per month) will become the 2020 Humana Premier Rx Plan ($58.00 per month) under the same plan id (S5884-157) and the new 2020 Humana Walmart Value Rx plan (S5884-190) ($13.20 per month) will be introduced.
Please note, the average monthly premium in each state or Medicare region will vary from the national average and can be seen in PDP-Facts.com by clicking on your state.
Important: Many current 2019 Part D plan members can expect premium increases in 2020.
Based on the current 2019 Medicare Part D plan enrollment (September 2019), we estimate that around 58% of Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in a stand-alone Medicare Part D plan can expect to see an increase of about $8.63 in their monthly 2020 Medicare Part D plan premiums - unless they change their Medicare plan coverage to a more affordable 2020 Medicare Part D or Medicare Advantage plan.
How about a few State-specific Examples?
As a state-level example, 91% of the Medicare beneficiaries in Arkansas who are currently enrolled in a 2019 stand-alone Medicare Part D plan can expect an increase in their 2020 monthly Medicare Part D premiums. The average increase is $4.93.
As another example, 63% of the people currently enrolled in a 2019 Florida stand-alone Medicare Part D plan can expect an average increase in their 2020 monthly Medicare Part D premiums of around $7.95.
For more information about how 2019 Part D plans are changing in 2020, please see our PDP-Compare.com to review annual plan feature changes in your state.
Why are the Q1Medicare.com average Medicare Part D premiums higher than premiums projected by Medicare?
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) recently issued a press release projecting a decrease in 2020 Medicare Part D premiums. CMS noted that, "Over the past three years, average Part D basic premiums have decreased by 13.5 percent, from $34.70 in 2017 to a projected $30 in 2020, saving beneficiaries about $1.9 billion in premium costs over that time."
The difference between our calculations and CMS' is that we are only considering stand-alone Medicare Part D plans (PDPs) and do not include the premiums for the Medicare Advantage plans (MAPDs). Many MAPDs have a low or $0 monthly premium and we find these low premiums skew average Medicare Part D drug plan premium figures toward lower values.
Average PDP premium vs. Average weighted* PDP premium vs. CMS' PDP/MAPD average premium
The following chart shows how the average and weighted-average stand-alone Medicare Part D premiums have changed since 2007 - and compares these premium values to the CMS estimated base Medicare Part D premium.
A preliminary analysis of the 2020 stand-alone Medicare Part D prescription drug plans (PDPs) found that the national average 2020 Part D premium (not considering plan enrollment) decreased 13% from $47.21 in 2019 to $40.90 in 2020, supporting the CMS projection of the monthly Medicare Part D plan premiums decreasing over the past plan-years.
However, the national average monthly 2020 Medicare Part D premium, weighted by the number of people currently enrolled in each plan will increase to $41.40 or an 6% increase over the 2019 weighted monthly premium of $39.13. The national weighted-average monthly premium increase means that if everyone stays in their current 2019 stand-alone Medicare Part D prescription drug plan through 2020, many beneficiaries will see an increase in their monthly premium.
Contrary to past years, the weighted average Medicare Part D premium is higher than the un-weighted average premium. This is due to the fact that a number of popular low-premium Medicare Part D plans are changing their plans to more expensive, feature-rich plans. For example, in Florida the 2019 Humana Walmart Rx Plan (S5884-157) ($29.60 per month) will become the 2020 Humana Premier Rx Plan ($58.00 per month) under the same plan id (S5884-157) and the new 2020 Humana Walmart Value Rx plan (S5884-190) ($13.20 per month) will be introduced.
Please note, the average monthly premium in each state or Medicare region will vary from the national average and can be seen in PDP-Facts.com by clicking on your state.
Important: Many current 2019 Part D plan members can expect premium increases in 2020.
Based on the current 2019 Medicare Part D plan enrollment (September 2019), we estimate that around 58% of Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in a stand-alone Medicare Part D plan can expect to see an increase of about $8.63 in their monthly 2020 Medicare Part D plan premiums - unless they change their Medicare plan coverage to a more affordable 2020 Medicare Part D or Medicare Advantage plan.
How about a few State-specific Examples?
As a state-level example, 91% of the Medicare beneficiaries in Arkansas who are currently enrolled in a 2019 stand-alone Medicare Part D plan can expect an increase in their 2020 monthly Medicare Part D premiums. The average increase is $4.93.
As another example, 63% of the people currently enrolled in a 2019 Florida stand-alone Medicare Part D plan can expect an average increase in their 2020 monthly Medicare Part D premiums of around $7.95.
For more information about how 2019 Part D plans are changing in 2020, please see our PDP-Compare.com to review annual plan feature changes in your state.
Why are the Q1Medicare.com average Medicare Part D premiums higher than premiums projected by Medicare?
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) recently issued a press release projecting a decrease in 2020 Medicare Part D premiums. CMS noted that, "Over the past three years, average Part D basic premiums have decreased by 13.5 percent, from $34.70 in 2017 to a projected $30 in 2020, saving beneficiaries about $1.9 billion in premium costs over that time."
The difference between our calculations and CMS' is that we are only considering stand-alone Medicare Part D plans (PDPs) and do not include the premiums for the Medicare Advantage plans (MAPDs). Many MAPDs have a low or $0 monthly premium and we find these low premiums skew average Medicare Part D drug plan premium figures toward lower values.
Average PDP premium vs. Average weighted* PDP premium vs. CMS' PDP/MAPD average premium
The following chart shows how the average and weighted-average stand-alone Medicare Part D premiums have changed since 2007 - and compares these premium values to the CMS estimated base Medicare Part D premium.
* The projected average premiums weighted by plan enrollment are using the current plan year's September enrollment data (or the latest enrollment data). These projected averages are "updated" next year in this chart using the actual year's enrollment. So we calculate a projected 2019 enrollment-weighted average premium using September 2018 enrollment data (and projected a $41.29 weighted PDP premium) and then in September 2019, we update our 2019 projection using the actual September 2019 plan enrollment data (and now the chart shows a $39.13 actual enrollment-weighted PDP premium for 2019 as people moved to lower-premium plans during the 2019 AEP).
Reminder: Your Medicare plan costs and coverage can (and probably will) change each year.
Please review your ANOC and plan options carefully. You can learn more about your 2020 Medicare plan options at https://PDP-Finder.com/2020.
The annual Open Enrollment Period (AEP or Annual Election Period) for Medicare Advantage plans and Medicare Part D drug plans begins on October 15 and continues through December 7, 2019. The Medicare Advantage Open Enrollment Period (MA OEP) will begin January 1st and continues through March 31, 2020.
Not sure where to begin?
If you or another Medicare beneficiary needs assistance understanding how your 2019 Medicare plan is changing or to learn more about your 2020 Medicare plan coverage options, please call 1-800-MEDICARE (1-800-633-4227) and speak with a Medicare representative.
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