Saturday, March 28, 2020

Gloomy Prediction from Imperial College London Apparently Revised Down

From the story: Nine days ago, Imperial College London claimed that the US would lose up to 2 million Americans. Their new numbers? Just 84,000, again with two-thirds predicted to die within the next six months without Coronavirus (Ricochet). From White House coronavirus task force member Deborah Birx: “If you remember, that was the report that said there would be 500,000 deaths in the U.K. and 2.2 million deaths in the United States. They’ve adjusted that number in the U.K. to 20,000. So, half a million to 20,000. We are looking into this in great detail to understand that adjustment” (Washington Examiner). Dr. Neil Ferguson, whose team led the study, says they stand by their original figures (Twitter).  From another story: Models like this will always turn out to be wrong in some way or other, because they rely on very strong assumptions about aspects of the disease we haven’t thoroughly studied yet. If nothing else, the original Imperial model will be obsolete soon, because it didn’t predict what could happen with extensive testing and contact tracing, which is likely the next step once the spread is contained and we have enough tests to go around. But it hasn’t been walked back just yet (National Review).  Similarly, the Covid Act Now diagrams used by many states have proven far more hype than factual (The Federalist). From Guy Benson: Dr. Birx is a thorough, consummate professional and a top expert. It is truly dizzying to witness some people turn on her — with some ludicrously painting her as a Trumpian partisan — because she offered an analysis that worst case Coronavirus models may *not* be coming true (Twitter). Dr. Anthony Fauci says it’s possible COVID-19 is seasonal (Daily Caller).  From Dr. Scott Gottlieb: We may also have by summer or fall an anti-viral drug that acts directly against the virus. Remdesivir by Gilead is one of many agents showing preliminary activity. Such a drug can be used as both treatment and potentially post exposure prophylaxis if side effect profile is good (Twitter). From Jerry Bowyer: Though death tolls might be much lower in reality than some of the dodgy math would indicate, some people will die from this. Might be me, might be you. Just in case it is you… What do you want your last words to be? Who do you want your last words to be to? Words of abuse, anger, and fear to strangers on the internet? Or words of blessing to people in real life? (Townhall Finance).

No comments:

Post a Comment