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Saturday, March 28, 2020
Gloomy Prediction from Imperial College London Apparently Revised Down
From the story: Nine days ago, Imperial College London claimed that the US would lose
up to 2 million Americans. Their new numbers? Just 84,000, again with
two-thirds predicted to die within the next six months without Coronavirus
(Ricochet). From White House coronavirus task
force member Deborah Birx: “If you remember, that was the report that said
there would be 500,000 deaths in the U.K. and 2.2 million deaths in the United
States. They’ve adjusted that number in the U.K. to 20,000. So, half a million
to 20,000. We are looking into this in great detail to understand that
adjustment” (Washington Examiner). Dr. Neil Ferguson, whose
team led the study, says they stand by their original figures (Twitter). From another story: Models like
this will always turn out to be wrong in some way or other, because they rely
on very strong assumptions about aspects of the disease we haven’t thoroughly
studied yet. If nothing else, the original Imperial model will be obsolete
soon, because it didn’t predict what could happen with extensive testing and
contact tracing, which is likely the next step once the spread is contained and
we have enough tests to go around. But it hasn’t been walked back just yet
(National Review). Similarly, the Covid
Act Now diagrams used by many states have proven far more hype than factual (The Federalist). From Guy Benson: Dr. Birx is a
thorough, consummate professional and a top expert. It is truly dizzying to
witness some people turn on her — with some ludicrously painting her as a
Trumpian partisan — because she offered an analysis that worst case Coronavirus
models may *not* be coming true (Twitter). Dr. Anthony Fauci says it’s possible
COVID-19 is seasonal (Daily Caller). From Dr. Scott Gottlieb: We may also
have by summer or fall an anti-viral drug that acts directly against the virus.
Remdesivir by Gilead is one of many agents showing preliminary activity. Such a
drug can be used as both treatment and potentially post exposure prophylaxis if
side effect profile is good (Twitter). From Jerry Bowyer: Though death
tolls might be much lower in reality than some of the dodgy math would
indicate, some people will die from this. Might be me, might be you. Just in
case it is you… What do you want your last words to be? Who do you want your
last words to be to? Words of abuse, anger, and fear to strangers on the
internet? Or words of blessing to people in real life? (Townhall Finance).
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