SOTU

Eakinomics: SOTU Tonight at 9:00 the president will deliver his State of the Union (SOTU) address. In recent years Eakinomics has filed the SOTU under the “Endurance Viewing” category as it usually offered little insight and few surprises; lots of choreographed stand, clap, sit; and perhaps a chance to play buzzword drinking games. Will this year be any different? Certainly, one can expect foreign policy to dominate the address. The president has a chance to fully articulate the case for the timing, scope, and nature of the economic sanctions. He will articulate the stake the United States has in European affairs and his approach to unifying the West against Russian aggression. For completeness, he will also summarize the implications of the Ukrainian efforts for the relationship with China. Also, with a new Supreme Court nominee in the public eye, he will likely turn to judicial issues, including restating his case for electoral reforms and addressing the sweeping uptick in crime in the United States. By now, there will be little time left for domestic policy issues. I would expect him to reiterate his support for the whole enchilada of Build Back Better programs – health, education, social safety net, climate policy, and more. These will be linked thematically by their stated goal of “lowering costs” for Americans – and will constitute the bulk of the administration’s promises to fight inflation (because there is precious little that they can do). Left unsaid will be the economic reality that these programs will raise the cost of health insurance, child care, and the other affected areas – but by throwing enough taxpayer money at beneficiaries the net cost will be reduced. Also left unsaid will be how, exactly, the moribund Build Back Better effort will get legislative oxygen. Given the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, this SOTU has a chance to break the mold. Will it?