What it means to "flatten the curve"

You likely have been hearing that we need to “flatten the curve” when it comes to coronavirus. But what exactly does that mean? The curve that epidemiologists and public health experts are referring to is the curve that represents the exponential growth as a virus spreads. For every patient that has coronavirus, the World Health Organization believes that it will be spread to at least two other people.

Those number of cases will eventually peak at a certain point. Without any interventions like treatments or vaccines, there’s nothing to stop that spread. But as people, we can slow down the spread of the virus. We can reduce our interactions, travel less and avoid situations like concerts, sporting events and bars, where we might transmit the virus. These kind of actions are called social distancing.

By taking these measures, we hope we can slow the spread. Even if there are ultimately the same number of cases, there aren’t as many sick patients overwhelming our health care system at once. Just take a look at the graph above. That first peak is what happens if we don’t enact any behavioral interventions; you can see how he curve peaks significantly above the line that represents our health care system’s capacity to take of patients. That second – lower curve – that’s social distancing. It still goes over that line showing our health care system’s capacity, but it doesn’t overwhelm it in the same way the first curve does.

This might mean that you can’t meet your friends for dinner as often. For kids, it may mean fewer playdates or birthday parties. But, it's important to remember that this is all something we have to do. Even though young people are less likely to have severe disease if they contract the coronavirus, they can still spread it to others who are more vulnerable – people who are elderly or have underlying conditions. To see just how important it is and #dontbeaspreader, watch this video from the legendary comedian Mel Brooks and his son, Max.