The Shutdown Battle

2019 begins with a policy standoff. To recap, part of the federal government remains shuttered because an appropriation bill (a funding bill) has not been signed into law. President Trump remains adamant that he will not sign such bill unless it contains $5 billion in funding for a wall on the southern border. Democrats, some of whom must vote yes to get a bill through the Senate, have drawn the line at the $1.6 billion that the previous Congress negotiated but the president rejected.

The new wrinkle is that Democrats now control the House; their first move is expected to be to pass a bill with $1.6 billion in border funding. The Senate Republicans will argue that there is no point in voting on a bill the president won’t sign, and there will be no vote. Stalemate.

For perspective, this is pure politics and not about the dollars. Senate Democrats have voted for more than $1.6 billion. Indeed, they supported $50 billion — yes FIFTY — the last time the Senate passed immigration reform. And Republicans have supported less than $5 billion. Just last fall they agreed to the $1.6 billion that passed Congress. And regardless of the exact sum, if it can’t be spent on border security it will lapse and not be spent — no risk of waste as some have argued. And both Republicans and Democrats have voted to fund walls across a substantial portion of the border. The policy — border security, including walls where appropriate  — and the dollar figure are not the problem.

Mechanically, the problem now is that the debate is one dimensional. If the president wins, Democrats lose and vice versa. Historically, the way to a deal in these circumstances is to broaden the issues under consideration —  go to $5 billion in exchange for legal status for the Dreamers or some other configuration of issues. When that kind of development hits the news then a serious attempt to resolve the issue is underway. But not before.