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Last month, after a month or so of nervousness and pessimism
about the economy, the Department of Labor reported 304,000 new jobs in January
(although with a huge downward revision of December’s jobs figure). The
unemployment report clocked in at 4.0 percent. The government shutdown only
mildly affected the establishment report and had no impact on the jobs number,
due to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’s methods. There was steady growth in
total hours. While average hourly earnings rose at only an hourly rate of 1.3
percent, they were still up 3.2 percent over January 2018. Finally, employment
growth was widespread. Turning to the household survey, the strong number was
labor force participation at 63.2 percent, the highest since September 2013.
The overall trend shows strong jobs growth, faster wage growth, and increased
participation in the labor market. January’s jobs report was a strong statement
against the threat of a downturn.
Here is a brief summary of the major economic indicators since the last jobs
numbers:
- Orders for durable goods
decreased 1.2 percent in December*;
- New home sales increased 3.7
percent in December*;
- The Producer Price Index for
final demand decreased 0.1 percent in January;
- The Consumer Price Index did
not change in January;
- Real average hourly earnings
increased 2 cents from December to January;
- The Price Index of U.S. imports
decreased 0.2 percent in January;
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
increased to 59.7 percent in February;
- ISM Manufacturing decreased to
54.2 percent in February;
- Consumer Confidence Index
increased from 121.7 to 131.4 in February;
- ADP reported private sector
employment increased by 183,000 jobs in February.
*Due to the government shutdown, new data
has not yet been released.
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