Monday, March 11, 2019

Here is a brief summary of the major economic indicators...

...Last month, after a month or so of nervousness and pessimism about the economy, the Department of Labor reported 304,000 new jobs in January (although with a huge downward revision of December’s jobs figure). The unemployment report clocked in at 4.0 percent. The government shutdown only mildly affected the establishment report and had no impact on the jobs number, due to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’s methods. There was steady growth in total hours. While average hourly earnings rose at only an hourly rate of 1.3 percent, they were still up 3.2 percent over January 2018. Finally, employment growth was widespread. Turning to the household survey, the strong number was labor force participation at 63.2 percent, the highest since September 2013. The overall trend shows strong jobs growth, faster wage growth, and increased participation in the labor market. January’s jobs report was a strong statement against the threat of a downturn.

Here is a brief summary of the major economic indicators since the last jobs numbers:
  • Orders for durable goods decreased 1.2 percent in December*;
  • New home sales increased 3.7 percent in December*;
  • The Producer Price Index for final demand decreased 0.1 percent in January;
  • The Consumer Price Index did not change in January;
  • Real average hourly earnings increased 2 cents from December to January;
  • The Price Index of U.S. imports decreased 0.2 percent in January;
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 59.7 percent in February;
  • ISM Manufacturing decreased to 54.2 percent in February;
  • Consumer Confidence Index increased from 121.7 to 131.4 in February;
  • ADP reported private sector employment increased by 183,000 jobs in February.
*Due to the government shutdown, new data has not yet been released.

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