The news of an outbreak in China of a new type
of coronavirus (2019-nCoV), leading to respiratory illness, recalls previous
potential pandemic infections. Coronavirus was behind SARS (Severe Acute
Respiratory Syndrome) in 2002 and MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) in
2012. The outbreak is being linked to people eating the infected meat of small
mammals or reptiles - an echo of Ebola.
It is assumed, not proven, that this virus is
passed between individuals by droplet spread because of the presence of
respiratory complications. In scientific circles, there is concern about how it
has jumped the species barrier. The suggestion that this rapidly mutating virus
could develop a more powerful grip on its new human hosts is a grave concern.
The WHO preliminary estimation is that each infected person could potentially
transmit this virus to between 1.4 and 2.5 other individuals.
The WHO is not advising restriction on trade or
travel. Chinese cities and airports are in lockdown, but cases are already
reported outside China, underlining the sinister potential for rapid
person-to-person spread. The advice offered so far by health authorities is
simply to avoid contact with people who are ill, to wash hands and wear a face shield.
Insurers can do little to identify infected
individuals during the window before they become symptomatic. The features are
commonplace: fever, cough, shortness of breath and breathing difficulties but
in severe cases this may lead to pneumonia and even death. The WHO Emergency
Committee published a statement on 23 January 2020. The latest
epidemiological data reveals the proportion of deaths in currently reported
cases is 4%. MERS was much higher at 23%.
While it is likely the WHO will label this an
international public health emergency, insurers need not panic. The pattern of
broad-spectrum severity, with deaths mainly in sickly individuals, is akin to
most flu outbreaks.
In any outbreak of a novel virus, priorities
include developing a vaccine if transmission is sustained and finding a drug to
stop illness in infected individuals. It is important to retain perspective,
and social media and hyped news headlines don’t help. So far, the number of
confirmed cases and deaths remains low, with many who died already being in
poor health, but the speed at which the situation is unfolding hints this could
change. The 2002 SARS outbreak in China infected 8000 people in
37 countries, claimed 750 lives and was a deadlier virus than
2019-nCoV currently appears to be.
Most of the action related to this outbreak
centres on China and includes an obligation to monitor and report accurate data
and take steps to limit contagion. But this type of event can quickly develop
global consequences. Life and Health insurers should therefore tune into the
available sources of verified information, including WHO and Centres for Disease
Control and Protection to keep pace with developments,
modifying their selection and claims criteria as or when this becomes
necessary.
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