2021 MA, Part D Bids Face Challenges Amid COVID-19

by Lauren Flynn Kelly

There are always uncertainties when it comes to projecting plan costs for the year ahead, but Medicare Advantage and Part D organizations that submitted bids on June 1 faced a particularly unpredictable set of circumstances created by the COVID-19 pandemic.

"I think we will all look back on the 2021 bids as the year of COVID-19," says Brad Piper, a principal and consulting actuary in Milliman's Milwaukee office. "That was a big challenge for the organizations that are in the Medicare Advantage program — [perhaps more so] than on the Part D side — and it impacted both sides of the coin: costs and revenue."

From a cost perspective, unknowns include whether there will be "pent-up demand" for health care services next year given that many beneficiaries have deferred doctors' appointments and elective/non-urgent procedures to avoid the risk of coronavirus exposure.

Adding to that is the question of whether there will be a second wave of COVID-19 "and how much COVID-related utilization and services will occur that plans will have to bear," points out Matt Kazan, principal with Avalere Health. A third concern is "how much of the cost of all the things Congress is saying plans will need to cover in terms of testing, vaccines…will impact plans," says Kazan, referring to various legislative requirements, some of which are still pending.

Preparing bids on the revenue side was equally challenging, since it's the 2020 diagnosis information that drives reimbursement for next year, adds Piper. "As we're trying to forecast what 2021 revenue will look like, we've got to look at what’s going on in today's environment and understand if we're not seeing our members as often…that potentially creates a challenge for health plans to capture all that diagnosis information in 2020, which in turn drives their 2021 revenue amount."

On the Part D side, Milliman principal and consulting actuary Shelly Brandel says COVID-19 had less of an impact on costs because prescription drug utilization or fills weren't "delayed to the same degree as medical services had been." The risk score impact, however, created a similar challenge because Part D risk scores are based on medical diagnoses, she adds.

From RADAR on Medicare Advantage