If
large-scale shutdown policies — such as ordering people to stay home and
closing schools — were not implemented after the coronavirus pandemic reached
the United States, there would be
roughly 60 million more coronavirus infections across the nation,
a new modeling study suggests.
The study, published Monday in the scientific journal Nature, involved a modeling technique typically used for estimating economic growth to measure the effect of shutdown policies across six countries: China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France and the United States. Those estimates suggest that, without certain policies in place from the beginning of the pandemic in January through early April, there would be roughly more than 500 million total coronavirus infections across those six countries. "I don't think any human endeavor has ever saved so many lives in such a short period of time. There have been huge personal costs to staying home and canceling events, but the data show that each day made a profound difference," Solomon Hsiang, a professor and director of the Global Policy Laboratory at the University of California, Berkeley, said in a press release on Monday.
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Tuesday, June 9, 2020
Early shutdowns prevented 60 million infections
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