Tuesday, December 22, 2020

Apple Shouldn't Make A Car

 

By Nicholas Jasinski |  Tuesday, December 22

Jingle Bells. U.S. stocks had a mixed day today, as a degree of calm returned to the stock market following yesterday's chaotic start to the week. Things appear to be slowing down ahead of the Christmas holiday on Friday. Markets will also close early on Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day down 0.7% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5% and the small-cap Russell 2000 added 1% -- both to record highs.

Congress passed a $900 billion fiscal stimulus package last night after months of wrangling and negotiating between Republicans and Democrats. Investors had increasingly hung their hats on a deal getting done during the lame-duck session, so the news didn’t come as a surprise to the market.

Still, the stimulus is likely to provide a meaningful boost to the economy, and possibly help avoid a double-dip recession during the current record wave of Covid-19 outbreaks. The bill is worth some 4.3% of U.S. nominal GDP.

The Conference Board released the results of its latest consumer confidence survey this morning. The monthly measure of public confidence in the health of the U.S. economy unexpectedly declined in December, to 88.6, down from a revised 92.9 in November. Economists had been expecting a reading of 97.

The December confidence figure is just 3 points above the April low. Covid-19 outbreaks and associated stay-at-home orders and other restrictions appear to be making a dent.

“My view is that consumer spending has cooled more due to a lack of opportunity to spend than to deep-seated pessimism,”  Amherst Pierpont chief economist Stephen Stanley wrote today. “Indeed, there is finally light at the end of the tunnel in the form of vaccines, but people are likely laying low a bit in November and December due to the surge in the virus and resulting restrictions on activity.”

Stanley expects consumer spending to resume its upward trend within a few months as vaccines are distributed more widely. The just-passed stimulus bill includes $286 billion going to households via stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment benefits. That probably won't hurt consumers' moods either.

 

 


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