Tuesday, December 29, 2020

Market Risks and Overvalued Stocks

 

By Brian Hershberg |  Wednesday, December 23

Bah Humbug. U.S. stocks ended mixed today as investors largely shrugged off President Donald Trump's hints that he might not sign the $900 billion-plus coronavirus stimulus package if Congress didn't make a number of last-minute changes. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day up 0.4%, the S&P 500 inched up 0.1%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 rose 0.9% in notching its 13th record close of the year. The Nasdaq Composite, however, lost 0.3%. 

While Trump in a tweeted video urged Congress to bump up the "ridiculously low $600" payments to Americans and demanded the removal of "wasteful and unnecessary items," investors appeared to be looking ahead to the Christmas break and the end of 2020. U.S. stock markets close at 1 p.m. Eastern time tomorrow and are closed Friday. 

On the economic front, jobless claims retreated after hitting a three-month high the week prior and durable goods orders climbed more than expected, but U.S. household spending fell in November for the first time since April as incomes also fell. 

It's that household spending and income data that is of particular concern looking forward. Both had rebounded considerably since the pandemic depths in March and April, underpinning the consumer-driven recovery, and their joint turn lower in November is cause for pause. 

"A rapidly worsening health situation, weakening income, depleted savings for lower income families, and cooler weather led consumers to slam their wallets shut in November," wrote Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. "Personal income and spending fell for the first time in this recovery cycle, and real time data points to ongoing weakness in December."

The coronavirus relief bill should help -- all the more so if Trump gets his wish and payments are increased to $2,000 for individuals and $4,000 for couples. But Daco warns that aid can't come soon enough: "Without it, consumer spending growth could flirt with zero in Q1."

And that wouldn't make for a very happy new year. 

 

 


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