Wednesday, March 31, 2021

Q1 In The Books

 

By Nicholas Jasinski |  Wednesday, March 31

Build It. The first quarter ended with a good day for technology stocks, as investors digested the preliminary details from President Joe Biden’s “American Jobs Plan,” which he unveiled at a carpenters' training facility outside Pittsburgh this afternoon.

With a price tag of some $2.3 trillion over 10 years, Biden’s proposal includes a wide range of infrastructure improvements, including fixing the nation’s roads and bridges, expanding access to clean drinking water, and upgrading America’s electric grid.

It would also provide funding for high-speed broadband in rural areas and clean energy generation. Plus, the bill includes investments in domestic semiconductor manufacturing and technology research and development, aimed at better competing with China. 

To pay for at least some of that, Biden proposed increasing the U.S. corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%, and raising taxes on companies’ foreign income to 21% from 10.5%. That could raise about $1.3 trillion over the next decade.

And Biden isn’t done yet. Part two of the proposal is due in April, which will focus on education, healthcare, and other priorities and could be funded by higher individual tax rates. That all comes less than a month after the president signed a separate $1.9 trillion stimulus bill into law.

Jefferies Chief Economist Aneta Markowska wrote today that if enacted in its entirety, Biden's package unveiled today could add between a half a point and a percentage point to 2022 GDP growth, which she currently forecasts at 5.2%. The plan would also add about $140 billion annually to the federal deficit, per Markowska's estimates. Barron's Randall Forsyth has thoughts on the stock and bond-market implications of the proposal.

Needless to say, the legislative path for Biden's plans is far from simple. The final bills may look very different from his opening offers to Congress.

The S&P 500 ended the first quarter with a 0.4% gain today, to close just 0.04% below its record high from last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.3% on the day, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.5%, and the Russell 2000 gained 1.1%.

The small-cap index handily outperformed the large-cap indexes in the first quarter, up 12.4%, versus a 7.8% rise for the Dow, 5.8% for the S&P 500, and 2.8% for the Nasdaq.

 

 


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