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By Alex Eule
| Monday, April 4 Flipping
the Script. Macro
economic worries and geopolitical turmoil have been dominating the stock
market for weeks now. And the issues haven't gone away. In fact, they feel
more troubling and tragic. But coming out of the weekend, investors
were back to corporate news. And it was largely a positive for the market. Elon
Musk sees value in social media, it seems, and his newly
disclosed 9% stake in Twitter sent the stock to its
best day ever. The billionaire's expanded faith in tech contributed to a
banner day for the Nasdaq Composite, which closed
up 1.9%. Strong quarterly
deliveries for Tesla, Musk's other company,
pushed the electric vehicle maker up 5.6% on the day. Starbucks was another big mover, with Howard
Schultz beginning his third stint as the company's CEO.
Schultz's first act was to suspend
the company's stock buyback. “This decision will allow us to
invest more into our people and our stores -- the only way to create
long-term value for all stakeholders,” Schultz wrote in a letter
he addressed to "Starbucks partners (employees), customers, communities,
and shareholders." Those constituencies are sure to have
different views on the buyback matter, and investors weren't crazy about
Starbucks pulling back on its cash return policy. Shares of the coffee
giant finished down 3.7% on the day. The yield on the 10-year rose 3.5 basis
points, or 0.035 percentage point. The good news for investors is that the
2-year yield declined a tiny bit. Those contrasting moves mean a steepening
in the yield curve, at least for today. The lending rates on the long-term
and short-term notes are now slightly less inverted than they were late last
week. The abnormal dynamic in which shorter-term
loans yield more than longer ones remains worrisome, but investors are
learning to live with it. And if today's pattern continues, the inversion
could soon be flipped, leaving everyone debating whether a brief
"inversion" was enough to predict a recession, as it often
does. In Barron's this weekend, my colleague
Randall Forsyth explained why all the inversion
worries may actually
be overblown. Recessions linked to the yield curve have
been rooted in tight Fed monetary policies, which eventually tipped the
economy into a downturn. Now, the curve’s moves are based on anticipated,
rather than actual, Fed actions. ...the spread between three-month and
10-year Treasury yields is actually the measure to watch, according to the
model developed by former New York Fed economist Arturo Estrella. And that
curve remains distinctly positive and well out of recession-prediction
territory. ...The classic message sent by an inverted
yield curve is that financial conditions are tight and portend a downturn.
But broader measures, such as indexes constructed by Goldman Sachs and the
Chicago Fed, which take equity and corporate credit markets into account,
don’t show significant tightening. In fact, adjusted for inflation, Goldman’s
index remains easy and suggests that the Fed should tighten even more than
the market expects... Maybe investors are worrying for no reason?
It's a nice thought for a day. |
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DJIA: +0.30% to 34,921.88 The Hot Stock: Twitter +27.1% Best Sector: Communication
Services +2.8% |
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