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By Jeffrey
Cane | Wednesday, March 30 Peace
Doesn't Get a Chance. Hopes faded that there could be a let-up in
the fighting in Ukraine, and a mini-rally in stocks ran out of steam today.
Oil prices surged after a two-day retreat. “Yesterday’s Ukraine headlines boosted
sentiment and oil prices declined,” wrote Dennis DeBusschere,
founder of 22VResearch. “Today, headlines suggest Russia-Ukraine
negotiations are in early stages, and oil prices are rebounding.” Such short swings between market optimism
and pessimism have been noticeable since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24,
although the pattern is not always clear. Jacob Sonenshine
of Barron's has more on that here. This morning, Lisa
Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth
Management, said on
Bloomberg television: "We’re skeptical of getting ahead
of ourselves here with regard to hope. While we respect that the amount of
liquidity that’s out there and the desire to ‘buy the dip’ after we saw a correction
in the S&P 500 and a bear market
in the Nasdaq, the reality is that
risk has really fundamentally gone up." Those risks include economic
fundamentals as well as geopolitical ones, she noted. After four sessions of gains, the S&P
500 closed down 0.6%, but off its session lows. Energy was
the strongest sector as crude oil futures climbed
3.4%, to $107.82 a barrel. Refiners Phillips 66 (up 4.8%) and Valero
Energy (up 4.0%) led the benchmark index. Exxon
Mobil rose 1.7%; the SPDR S&P 500 Energy Sector
exchanged-traded fund gained 1.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
fell 0.2%, the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.2%,
and the Russell 2000 slumped 2%. After a key section of the U.S. yield curve
briefly inverted yesterday, Treasury prices rose today,
pushing their yields lower. The yield on the two-year Treasury note settled
at 2.326%; the 10-year, at 2.357%. PVH, home to Calvin
Klein and Tommy Hilfiger apparel, slid 6.5% after the company provided
disappointing guidance for its first quarter and the year. Even the meme stocks were down today after a
recent revival, with GameStop off 7.2%
and AMC Entertainment down
12.8%. Still, there is much in the days and weeks
ahead that could buoy market sentiment, including company earnings and
economic data -- notably the March jobs report on Friday. Indeed, never mind what the
poets say, April is not the cruelest month. For
stocks, contend our more prosaic colleagues at Dow
Jones Markets Data, April is the month with the best
return on average since 2000. The S&P 500 has been up 77% of the time in
April during that span, with an average gain of 2.4%. See, there is reason to
hope. |
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DJIA: -0.19% to 35,228.81 The Hot Stock: Phillips
66 +4.8% Best Sector: Energy +1.2% |
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