Tuesday, May 3, 2022

April Was Historically Bad

 

By Connor Smith |  Friday, April 29

The Wrong Kind of History. Stocks closed out their worst April since 1970, as a steep slide for Amazon shares stood out amid a broader market swoon on Friday.

With a 3.6% drop on Friday, the S&P 500 index locked in its worst April performance since 1970. Its 8.8% decline is the index's worst since the pandemic lows in March 2020. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 939 points, or 2.8%. With a 4.9% decline for the month, it was also its worst April since 1970.

The Nasdaq Composite sank 4.2% on Friday, closing its worst April since the dot-com bubble burst in 2000. The tech-heavy index -- down 13% in April -- had its worst month since October 2008.

And it's not just April: With a 13.3% decline year to date, the S&P 500 wrapped up its worst four-month opening to the year since 1939.

The bad day for stocks followed a disappointing earnings report from Amazon last night. Today, the company shed $206 billion in market capitalization, trailing only Meta Platforms' $232 billion drop in February for the largest one-day market value drop in U.S. corporate history, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Aside from the technology stock meltdown, investors are still worried about inflation and how the Federal Reserve may seek to handle it. The Commerce Department said the personal consumption expenditures index rose 6.6% year over year in March, compared to a 6.4% jump in February.

Barron's Lisa Beilfuss writes that the consensus view that the Federal Reserve can tame inflation without killing economic growth could turn out to be as wrong as the not-so-old view that inflation was transitory. 

The current consensus view that a so-called soft landing is not only possible but likely is reminiscent of the former dominant view that inflation was transitory. Now, the new macro narrative is based on the assumption that inflation has peaked.

But as inflation sits at a 40-year high—and feels worse than the headlines look to many businesses and consumers, given how fast food, energy, and shelter prices are running—war in Ukraine and Covid lockdowns in China mean that the peak-inflation argument is even more fraught than it already would be, based on domestic shelter prices alone.

We'll find out more when the Federal Reserve announces its interest-rate decision next week.

Watch our weekly TV show on Fox Business Saturday or Sunday at 10 a.m. or 11:30 a.m. ET. This week, an interview with BlackRock's Rick Rieder on investing in a time of inflation and rising rates; plus, more on Twitter and Tesla.

 

 


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