COVID-19 Outbreak Could Impact Drug Supply Long-Term

Industry experts say the COVID-19 outbreak is unlikely to limit U.S. drug supplies in the short or middle term. However, they tell AIS Health that increased demand for longer-duration stocks of medication from self-isolating patients could strain supplies going forward.

"We are told at this point that we're not seeing any [drug] shortages in the marketplace today," says Kelly McGrail-Pokuta, Prime Therapeutics' vice president of pharmaceutical trade.

On Feb. 27, FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn released a statement that said disruptions to the pharmaceutical supply chain have been minimal so far. The statement also said that the FDA was especially focused on 20 manufacturers that are particularly dependent on operations in China, and found that "none of these firms have reported any shortage to date."

But on March 10, the FDA postponed all inspections of overseas drug manufacturing facilities "through April, effective immediately," according to another statement released by Hahn.

During a pandemic, the CDC recommends anyone taking prescription medication to manage a chronic condition keep an expanded supply of their medicine on hand. As more people self-isolate, and consumers seek to spend less time in stores and other public places, demand for backup medication is likely to increase.

Mike Schneider, a principal at Avalere Health who previously worked for CVS Caremark, says PBMs and payers will have to rethink their typical posture toward chronic medication as enrollees stock up in anticipation of self-isolation.

"Hopefully, with everything going on related to coronavirus and people wanting to stock up, those quantity limits would be eased or eliminated for the most part for chronic meds," says Schneider.

The Blue Cross Blue Shield Association's "network of 36 independent and locally operated" affiliates have all decided to waive prescription refill limits on maintenance medications, according to America's Health Insurance Plans. Other non-Blues insurers have also taken steps to allow members to refill prescriptions in advance.

Experts say it's difficult to know whether the drug supply will be affected down the road. Schneider says consumer stockpiling and the FDA's move to suspend foreign inspections could both make an impact on future supply.

From RADAR on Drug Benefits